Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 10 teams · Club America Nido Dallas (all teams)

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5th

3-1-2 record · 6 played

1.67 points per game

+11 goal diff · 22–11

WWLWDlast 5

81% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.7

-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos
5th · 1.67 PPG

Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez
8th · 1.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3B ↗

89%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.4 for, 1.7 against · 2.72 expected points)

Season so far	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez
Position	5th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-2	2-0-4
Points per game	1.67	1.00
Goals for / game	3.7	1.8
Goals against / game	1.8	5.0
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	D W L W W	W L L L L
Biggest win	9–1 vs Nido Dallas Pre - Campos	4–1 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black
Worst loss	2–6 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor	0–9 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.14	-1.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.15	+0.68

Common opponents: Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia — we 0–2; they 0–8. FC Dallas North Academy — we 6–1; they 3–1. Sting Pre- Ortiz — we 4–0; they 1–7. Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black — we 1–1; they 4–1.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–9 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 5–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
What a win does
Sting Pre- Ortiz sit 4th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.67.
A point moves us above Sting Pre- Ortiz on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos – Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.86 PPG	3rd▲ up 2	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1
Win 1.86 PPG	3rd▲ up 2	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1
Draw 1.57 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.43 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

81% top 4

19% below the top 4

3.7 average finish

1st
2nd 2%
3rd 55%
4th 24%
5th 13%
6th 5%
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia	3.00 (+1.33)	1st (2.89)	14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor	2.50 (+0.83)	2nd (2.48)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	DKSC Pre- Guerrero	1.80 (+0.13)	3rd (1.89)	A point next game
4	Sting Pre- Ortiz	1.71 (+0.04)	6th (1.54)	A point next game

How the results connect

23 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos to Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us

4 even

3 favour them

+3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.80 · 7th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -19	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	5–1	2.72	1.82	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	DKSC Pre- Guerrero 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +1	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	2–1	1.91	1.83	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia

+33

3.00

WWWWW

-0.74

+1.09

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	8–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	17–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	3–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor

+14

2.50

LWWWW

-0.06

-1.07

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	4–1	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Guerrero

1.80

LWWWL

+0.78

-1.77

78%

3.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	2–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Nido Dallas Pre - Campos · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas North Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Ortiz

+15

1.71

LLLWW

-0.65

+3.45

10%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	13–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos

+11

1.67

WWLWD

-0.15

-0.80

81%

3.7

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	9–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Guerrero See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	5–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- PAEZ

1.40

LWDWL

+0.17

-1.00

31%

4.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	9–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	3–4

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Nido Dallas Pre - Campos · Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas North Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	4–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

-2

1.14

DLWDW

-0.40

+1.50

7.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez

-19

1.00

LLLLW

+0.68

+1.32

8.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	1–7
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos · Sat Oct 31 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas North Academy

-13

0.50

LLWLL

-0.61

+0.61

8.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	7–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Guerrero · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- PAEZ See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	1–4	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre - Campos

-47

0.00

LLLLL

+0.92

+0.61

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	1–13
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–17
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–9
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	2–7

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs DKSC Pre- Guerrero · Mon Jan 1 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	1–5	3%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	1–7	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.