Toca Fusion Elite Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Heartland BU11 · 14 teams · Toca Fusion Athletic Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 02:00 PM
Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 5S ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 6.0 for, 1.2 against · 2.89 expected points)
| Season so far | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | Sporting Iowa Central Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-0 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 7.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W | L L L |
| Biggest win | 16–0 vs Kansas Rush Pre | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–6 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.94 | -1.42 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.67 | +0.50 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Sporting Iowa Central Pre average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 5–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Sporting Iowa Central Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa Central Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Toca Fusion Elite Pre – Sporting Iowa Central Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 15 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.75 PPG |
6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 | 10th▼ down 7 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 31%
- 2nd 48%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 4%
- 5th <1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Athletics Pre | 3.00 (+0.67) | 3rd (2.55) | 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre | 3.00 (+0.67) | 1st (2.68) | 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.26 · 11th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Sporting Iowa Central Pre 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -9 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–1 | 2.89 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 09:30 AM |
Southwest MO Rush Pre 10th · 1-0-2 · GD -11 |
Away Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.85 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Kansas City Surf Pre 8th · 1-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.61 | 2.56 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Athletics Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | +19 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -2.77 | +0.71 | 97% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | +13 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.28 | -0.20 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Pre · Sun Nov 15 at FC Wichita Navy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.67 | -1.26 | 99% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Surf Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | St. Louis Stars SC Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.44 | +0.43 | 44% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Southwest MO Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | LWLWW | +0.01 | — | 17% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.40 | -1.24 | 32% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs VSA Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas Rush Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 4 | 1.33 | DWL | +0.67 | -0.87 | 11% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Nebraska FC Pre · Sun Nov 15 at St. Louis Stars SC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kansas City Surf Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.56 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | VSA Rush Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.78 | -1.41 | 1% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Nebraska FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Southwest MO Rush Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Southwest MO Rush Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.19 | +1.38 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at St. Louis Stars SC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sun Nov 15 at VSA Rush Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Union KC Soccer Club Red Pre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 12 | Sporting Iowa Central Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.50 | +0.98 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Athletics Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | FC Wichita Navy Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.71 | +0.14 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Kansas Rush Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 30 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +2.08 | +0.00 | 0% | 13.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Nebraska FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.