Kansas City Surf Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Heartland BU11 · 14 teams · Kansas City Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 08:00 AM
Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 6S ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.4 for, 1.9 against · 2.45 expected points)
| Season so far | Kansas City Surf Pre | Kansas Rush Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.7 | 10.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L | L L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at Sporting Iowa Central Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 2–5 vs VSA Rush Pre | 0–16 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.61 | -4.07 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.56 | +2.08 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Kansas Rush Pre average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Kansas Rush Pre concede 10.0/game; worst result 0–16 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Kansas Rush Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Paragon Star Sports Complex .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Missouri Rush Pre- Blue sit 7th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Missouri Rush Pre- Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas Rush Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas City Surf Pre – Kansas Rush Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 15 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds | 10th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds | 10th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 5 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
10th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 75%
- 10th 9%
- 11th 1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th
- 14th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Athletics Pre | 3.00 (+2.00) | 3rd (2.55) | 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.68) | 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 2.33 (+1.33) | 2nd (2.56) | 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | St. Louis Stars SC Pre | 2.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.89) | 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 5 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre | 2.00 (+1.00) | 4th (2.00) | 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 6 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 2.00 (+1.00) | 5th (1.94) | 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 7 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 1.33 (+0.33) | 7th (1.55) | A point next game |
How the results connect
2 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Kansas City Surf Pre to Kansas Rush Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.32 · 5th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM |
Kansas Rush Pre 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -29 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
4–1 | 2.45 | 1.36 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 12:30 PM |
Gretna Elite Academy Pre 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.27 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite Pre 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.31 | 1.01 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Athletics Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | +19 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -2.77 | +0.71 | 97% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | +13 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.28 | -0.20 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Pre · Sun Nov 15 at FC Wichita Navy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.67 | -1.26 | 99% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Surf Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | St. Louis Stars SC Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.44 | +0.43 | 44% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Southwest MO Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | LWLWW | +0.01 | — | 17% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.40 | -1.24 | 32% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs VSA Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas Rush Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 4 | 1.33 | DWL | +0.67 | -0.87 | 11% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Nebraska FC Pre · Sun Nov 15 at St. Louis Stars SC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kansas City Surf Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.56 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | VSA Rush Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.78 | -1.41 | 1% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Nebraska FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Southwest MO Rush Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Southwest MO Rush Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.19 | +1.38 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at St. Louis Stars SC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sun Nov 15 at VSA Rush Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Union KC Soccer Club Red Pre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 12 | Sporting Iowa Central Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.50 | +0.98 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Athletics Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | FC Wichita Navy Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.71 | +0.14 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Kansas Rush Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 30 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +2.08 | +0.00 | 0% | 13.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Nebraska FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.