Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU12 · 9 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 05:00 PM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.9 against · 1.44 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY | Plymouth Reign Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 1-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 5.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L D | W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs Michigan Burn Pre | 5–2 vs Michigan Burn Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Royal Oak FC Pre- GMA Green | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.17 | +0.47 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.35 | -1.88 |
Common opponents: Michigan Burn Pre — we 3–1; they 5–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Plymouth Reign Pre score 5.0/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Royal Oak FC Pre- GMA Green.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 41%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Plymouth Reign Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY – Plymouth Reign Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 10%
- 2nd 41%
- 3rd 34%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 2%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Reign Pre | 3.00 (+1.00) | 3rd (1.65) | 17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection |
| 2 | Royal Oak FC Pre- GMA Green | 2.25 (+0.25) | 1st (2.19) | 11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY to Plymouth Reign Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.40 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 05:00 PM |
Plymouth Reign Pre 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +3 |
Home Wanda Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Rolling Hills Ypsilanti |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 1.85 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 10:00 AM |
Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue |
Home Evolution Sportsplex Dome |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sat Jun 5 10:30 AM |
Royal Oak FC Pre- GMA Green 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Quickstad Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.76 | 1.70 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Plymouth Reign Pre | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -1.88 | +0.30 | 86% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY · Fri Nov 6 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Royal Oak FC Pre- GMA Green See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Royal Oak FC Pre- GMA Green | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.76 | -0.01 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sun Sep 20 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Plymouth Reign Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | DLWWW | -0.35 | +0.40 | 98% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Plymouth Reign Pre · Sat Apr 24 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sat May 15 vs Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 | 1.00 | DWL | -0.17 | -0.14 | 67% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Royal Oak FC Pre- GMA Green · Sun Oct 25 at Michigan Burn Pre · Fri Oct 30 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 7 | 1.00 | WDLL | +0.32 | -0.04 | 23% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Apr 18 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sat May 15 at Plymouth Reign Pre · Sat Jun 5 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LWL | -0.81 | +0.36 | 26% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Royal Oak FC Pre- GMA Green · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sun Jan 17 vs Plymouth Reign Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Legends FC Pre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | -0.42 | — | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 8 | Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 9 | Michigan Burn Pre | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.44 | -0.27 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sat May 1 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.