Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU11 · 11 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM
Rolling Hills Ypsilanti, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.8 against · 0.27 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-8 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.45 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D L D L L | W W L W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at Michigan Burn Pre White | 5–1 vs Michigan Burn Pre White |
| Worst loss | 0–8 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE | 1–6 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.32 | +0.07 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.20 | -0.12 |
Common opponents: Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE — we 0–8, 1–2; they 2–1. Michigan Burn Pre White — we 1–4, 2–1; they 5–1. Legends FC Pre — we 0–0; they 3–2. Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE — we 0–3; they 1–6.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–5 vs Plymouth Reign Pre, 0–8 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE, 0–5 vs Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green, 0–0 at Legends FC Pre, 0–3 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Rolling Hills Ypsilanti.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Michigan Rangers FC Pre sit 10th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.45.A point moves us above Michigan Rangers FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY – Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.42 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
9th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 3 | 9th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
| Loss 0.42 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th 1%
- 9th 9%
- 10th 24%
- 11th 67%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TKO Premier SC Pre- White | 3.00 (+2.55) | 3rd (2.58) | 43 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 3.00 (+2.55) | 1st (2.66) | 43 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA | 3.00 (+2.55) | 2nd (2.60) | 43 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre | 2.25 (+1.80) | 5th (1.82) | 31 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Plymouth Reign Pre | 2.00 (+1.55) | 4th (1.88) | 27 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE | 1.71 (+1.26) | 7th (1.60) | 23 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green | 1.50 (+1.05) | 6th (1.65) | 19 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Michigan Burn Pre White | 0.75 (+0.30) | 8th (0.70) | 7 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
| 9 | Legends FC Pre | 0.57 (+0.12) | 9th (0.54) | A point next game |
| 10 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 0.50 (+0.05) | 10th (0.43) | A point next game |
How the results connect
23 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY to Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +1.41 · 1st hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Rolling Hills Ypsilanti |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.27 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 12:30 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA 3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.08 | 0.41 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:30 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA 3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away Clintonwood Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:30 PM |
Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Quickstad Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.17 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 10:30 AM |
Plymouth Reign Pre 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Lake Pointe Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.08 | 0.35 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TKO Premier SC Pre- White | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 10 | +24 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.56 | +0.39 | 99% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.52 | +0.39 | 99% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TKO Premier SC Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Plymouth Reign Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.59 | -0.42 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Burn Pre White See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.12 | +0.05 | 32% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Plymouth Reign Pre · Sun Sep 20 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sun Oct 25 vs TKO Premier SC Pre- White See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Plymouth Reign Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.40 | +0.17 | 45% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Jan 16 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 | 1.71 | LWLWL | -0.45 | -0.09 | 9% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Nov 7 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.10 | +0.04 | 18% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE · Sun Apr 18 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sat May 1 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Michigan Burn Pre White | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.73 | +0.90 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE · Sun Nov 1 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Legends FC Pre | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLDW | +0.13 | +1.06 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Dec 5 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sun Jan 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 35 | -27 | 4 | 0.50 | LLLLD | +0.41 | +0.74 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Nov 7 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 40 | -32 | 5 | 0.45 | LLDLD | -0.20 | +1.41 | 0% | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sun Nov 8 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.