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Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU11 · 11 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+17 goal diff · 19–2
WWWlast 3
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1
-1.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 12:30 PM

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Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA
3rd · 3.00 PPG
at
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY
11th · 0.45 PPG

Premier Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.2 for, 0.8 against · 2.89 expected points)

Season so farLiverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMANationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY
Position3rd11th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-01-2-8
Points per game3.000.45
Goals for / game6.30.7
Goals against / game0.73.6
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless05
Form (recent first)W W WD L D L L
Biggest win10–1 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre2–1 at Michigan Burn Pre White
Worst loss—0–8 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.38-2.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.59-0.20

Common opponents: Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE — we 3–1; they 0–8, 1–2. Michigan Rangers FC Pre — we 10–1, 6–0; they 1–4, 1–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 5 of 11.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 5–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:30 PM at Premier Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA – Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

30% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
2.1 average finish
  1. 1st 30%
  2. 2nd 36%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 TKO Premier SC Pre- White 3.00 (+0.00) 3rd (2.58) Win next game
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.66) Win next game

How the results connect

20 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA to Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us
0 favour them
+7.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 2–1 6–0 1–1 4–1 10–1 8–0 1–7 7–2 1–0 0–0 0–5 3–0 1–3 2–0 1–7 Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 3rd Nationals SC Genese… 6th Michigan Rangers FC… 10th TKO Premier SC Pre-… 1st Legends FC Pre 9th Nationals SC Oaklan… 2nd Nationals SC Macomb… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 28 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.42 · 11th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 20
04:30 PM
no score posted		 Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Rolling Hills Ypsilanti		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–2 2.29 2.82 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
12:30 PM		 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY
11th · 1-2-8 · GD -32		 Away
Premier Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 5–0 2.89 2.84 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 Michigan Burn Pre White
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -8		 Home
Clintonwood Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 5–1 2.84 2.84 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 TKO Premier SC Pre- White
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +24		 Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 3–3 1.33 2.62 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:30 PM		 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY
11th · 1-2-8 · GD -32		 Home
Clintonwood Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 5–0 2.94 2.66 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
08:10 AM		 Legends FC Pre
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13		 Away far trip
Legacy Center Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.70 2.67 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
12:00 PM		 Plymouth Reign Pre
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
Legacy Center Sports Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 4–2 2.12 2.61 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD		 Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +4		 Home
Clintonwood Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 2.58 Bank it
Sat May 22
06:00 PM		 Legends FC Pre
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13		 Home
Clintonwood Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 4–0 2.82 2.60 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 TKO Premier SC Pre- White 6600 3410+24 183.00 WWWWW -0.56 +0.39 100% 2.2
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 5500 232+21 153.00 WWWWW -1.52 +0.39 99% 1.9
3 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA 3300 192+17 93.00 WWW -1.59 -0.42 98% 2.1
4 Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre 4301 1110+1 92.25 WLWW -0.12 +0.05 30% 5.2
5 Plymouth Reign Pre 3201 166+10 62.00 WLW -0.40 +0.17 47% 4.9
6 Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE 7403 1613+3 121.71 LWLWL -0.45 -0.09 9% 6.0
7 Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 2101 73+4 31.50 WL +0.10 +0.04 17% 5.7
8 Michigan Burn Pre White 4103 614-8 30.75 LWLL -0.73 +0.90 0% 8.5
9 Legends FC Pre 7115 720-13 40.57 LLLDW +0.13 +1.06 0% 9.2
10 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 8116 835-27 40.50 LLLLD +0.41 +0.74 0% 9.8
11 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 11128 840-32 50.45 LLDLD -0.20 +1.41 0% 10.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.