Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU11 · 11 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:30 PM
Rick Hartker Soccer Fields, Field 8 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.6 against · 2.18 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE | Michigan Burn Pre White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-3 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.71 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W L | L L W L |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 4–1 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY |
| Worst loss | 1–7 vs TKO Premier SC Pre- White | 0–6 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.05 | -1.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.45 | -0.73 |
Common opponents: Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY — we 8–0, 2–1; they 4–1, 1–2. Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre — we 1–2; they 1–5.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 15% / loss 17%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Michigan Burn Pre White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE – Michigan Burn Pre White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.88 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.88 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.63 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 9%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 32%
- 7th 41%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TKO Premier SC Pre- White | 3.00 (+1.29) | 3rd (2.58) | 30 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 3.00 (+1.29) | 1st (2.66) | 30 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA | 3.00 (+1.29) | 2nd (2.60) | 30 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre | 2.25 (+0.54) | 5th (1.82) | 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 5 | Plymouth Reign Pre | 2.00 (+0.29) | 4th (1.88) | 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
How the results connect
19 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE to Michigan Burn Pre White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 10th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:30 PM |
Michigan Burn Pre White 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -8 |
Home Rick Hartker Soccer Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM |
Michigan Rangers FC Pre 10th · 1-1-6 · GD -27 |
Home Rick Hartker Soccer Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.55 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Kentwood Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 1.77 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:30 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Rolling Hills Ypsilanti |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.72 | Upside |
| Fri Apr 23 06:00 PM |
Legends FC Pre 9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13 |
Home Rick Hartker Soccer Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 10:30 AM |
Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +21 |
Home Rick Hartker Soccer Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 03:00 PM |
Plymouth Reign Pre 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Lake Pointe Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.70 | 1.60 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | TKO Premier SC Pre- White | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 10 | +24 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.56 | +0.39 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.52 | +0.39 | 99% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TKO Premier SC Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Plymouth Reign Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.59 | -0.42 | 98% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Burn Pre White See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.12 | +0.05 | 31% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Plymouth Reign Pre · Sun Sep 20 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sun Oct 25 vs TKO Premier SC Pre- White See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Plymouth Reign Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.40 | +0.17 | 47% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Jan 16 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 | 1.71 | LWLWL | -0.45 | -0.09 | 9% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Nov 7 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.10 | +0.04 | 16% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE · Sun Apr 18 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sat May 1 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Michigan Burn Pre White | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.73 | +0.90 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE · Sun Nov 1 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Legends FC Pre | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLDW | +0.13 | +1.06 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Dec 5 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sun Jan 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 35 | -27 | 4 | 0.50 | LLLLD | +0.41 | +0.74 | 0% | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Nov 7 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 40 | -32 | 5 | 0.45 | LLDLD | -0.20 | +1.41 | 0% | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sun Nov 8 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.