Wellington SC PRE
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Florida BU12 · 13 teams · Wellington SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.0 for, 0.8 against · 2.89 expected points)
| Season so far | Wellington SC PRE | Miami FC Academy Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 0-1-2 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.4 | 6.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | D L L |
| Biggest win | 7–1 vs Mako Soccer Club PRE- GREEN | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–8 vs Strikers Miami FC PRE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.72 | -2.61 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.52 | -0.11 |
Common opponents: Strikers Miami FC PRE — we 1–0; they 0–8.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Miami FC Academy Pre average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Miami FC Academy Pre concede 6.0/game; worst result 0–8 vs Strikers Miami FC PRE.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 5–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Miami FC Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wellington SC PRE – Miami FC Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 53%
- 2nd 20%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 3%
- 6th 2%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
8 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Wellington SC PRE to Miami FC Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.43 · 8th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Miami FC Academy Pre 11th · 0-1-2 · GD -16 |
Home Village Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.89 | 2.98 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 04:00 PM |
Doral Soccer Club Pre 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +18 |
Home Village Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 2.79 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Palm Beach United FC Pre 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away Gardens North County District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
2–2 | 1.45 | 2.63 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 12:00 PM |
PSL Hurricanes FC Pre 12th · 0-1-3 · GD -24 |
Away far trip
Swan Park 11v11 |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.88 | 2.65 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 24 12:00 PM |
PSL Hurricanes FC Pre 12th · 0-1-3 · GD -24 |
Home Village Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–0 | 2.93 | 2.68 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 03:00 PM |
Mako Soccer Club PRE- GREEN 10th · 0-2-3 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
McChesney Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.66 | 2.68 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 31 11:00 AM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- NL 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Autonation Field at U School |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 2.56 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- RL 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Miami Dolphins Training Facility @ NOVA Southeaste |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.52 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 05:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida Pre 9th · 1-1-4 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.29 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 PM |
Palm Beach United FC Pre 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home Village Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 2.48 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:30 AM |
South Miami United FC Pre- Black 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
South Miami Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 2.44 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 04:00 PM |
Davie United SC - Pre 13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21 |
Home Village Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.93 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM |
Parkland Soccer Club Pre 7th · 4-1-3 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Terramar Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 2.42 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington SC PRE | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.52 | -0.43 | 95% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Miami FC Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Palm Beach United FC Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Doral Soccer Club Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 13 | 2.17 | WLWWW | -0.26 | -0.52 | 78% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Mako Soccer Club PRE- GREEN · Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC PRE · Sat Nov 7 vs Miami FC Academy Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- NL | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 7 | +21 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWL | +0.26 | -0.48 | 83% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Palm Beach United FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at South Miami United FC Pre- Black · Sat Nov 14 vs Miami FC Academy Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Strikers Miami FC PRE | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 12 | 2.00 | WWWLL | +0.21 | -0.64 | 57% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at PSL Hurricanes FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Mako Soccer Club PRE- GREEN · Sat Nov 14 at Palm Beach United FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Palm Beach United FC Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.66 | -0.37 | 62% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Athletic Club Florida Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- NL · Sun Nov 8 vs Wellington SC PRE See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | South Miami United FC Pre- Black | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | -1.67 | +0.19 | 8% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- NL · Sat Dec 5 at Doral Soccer Club Pre · Sun Dec 6 vs Miami FC Academy Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Parkland Soccer Club Pre | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 13 | 1.63 | WWLLW | +0.99 | -1.00 | 17% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs PSL Hurricanes FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- RL · Sat Dec 5 at Miami FC Academy Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- RL | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 7 | 1.00 | LDWLL | +0.59 | -0.51 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Miami FC Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Parkland Soccer Club Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Davie United SC - Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Athletic Club Florida Pre | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLDW | +0.04 | -0.01 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Palm Beach United FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Miami FC Academy Pre · Sat Jan 9 vs South Miami United FC Pre- Black See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Mako Soccer Club PRE- GREEN | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 2 | 0.40 | LDLDL | +0.50 | +0.09 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Doral Soccer Club Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs PSL Hurricanes FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Strikers Miami FC PRE See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Miami FC Academy Pre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | -0.11 | +0.12 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- RL · Sun Oct 25 at Wellington SC PRE · Sun Nov 1 at Athletic Club Florida Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | PSL Hurricanes FC Pre | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 29 | -24 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.03 | +0.47 | 0% | 12.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Parkland Soccer Club Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Mako Soccer Club PRE- GREEN · Sat Oct 31 vs Strikers Miami FC PRE See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Davie United SC - Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 22 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.81 | +0.06 | 0% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre- RL · Sun Nov 15 vs Palm Beach United FC Pre · Sat Dec 5 at Mako Soccer Club PRE- GREEN See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.