Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Florida BU12 · 9 teams · Florida Kraze Krush (all teams)

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2nd

3-0-1 record · 4 played

2.25 points per game

+15 goal diff · 20–5

WLWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

-0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black
2nd · 2.25 PPG

Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White
3rd · 1.80 PPG

Central Winds, Field A ↗

74% 13% 13%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.5 for, 1.6 against · 2.34 expected points)

Season so far	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White
Position	2nd	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-1	3-0-2
Points per game	2.25	1.80
Goals for / game	5.0	2.2
Goals against / game	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets	3	2
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W L W	W L L W W
Biggest win	10–0 vs Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE	5–0 vs Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE
Worst loss	1–5 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre	0–3 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.00	+0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.20	-0.32

Common opponents: Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE — we 10–0; they 5–0. Sporting SA JAX Pre — we 1–5; they 0–3. Space Coast United Pre — we 5–0; they 3–5. Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 — we 4–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black – Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.40 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.40 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 1.80 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 95%
3rd 3%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sporting SA JAX Pre	3.00 (+0.75)	1st (2.86)	39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

11 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black to Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

2 favour them

+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.30 · 7th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Sep 20 12:00 PM no score posted	Sporting SA GNV Pre 9th · 0-0-2 · GD -4	Home Central Winds	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	4–1	2.67	2.33	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +2	Home Central Winds	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.34	2.33	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -14	Away far trip Ormond Beach Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	5–1	2.76	2.40	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	FC America Pre 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +2	Home Central Winds	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.34	2.39	Bank it
Sat Dec 12 10:00 AM	Sporting SA JAX Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +30	Away far trip Losco Park	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–3	0.51	2.18	Upside
Sun Dec 13 10:00 AM	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -17	Away far trip Losco Park	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	4–0	2.78	2.24	Bank it
Sun Jan 24 02:00 PM	Sporting SA GNV Pre 9th · 0-0-2 · GD -4	Away far trip Jonesville Soccer Park - GSA	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–1	2.49	2.26	Bank it
Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM	Brevard SA Pre- Elite 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -8	Home Central Winds	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	5–1	2.76	2.30	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 12:30 PM	FC America Pre 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +2	Away far trip SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–2	2.06	2.29	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +2	Away Central Winds	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–1	2.07	2.27	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM	Space Coast United Pre 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -6	Home Central Winds	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	4–1	2.61	2.29	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM	Brevard SA Pre- Elite 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -8	Away far trip Max Rhodes Park	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	5–2	2.59	2.31	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sporting SA JAX Pre

+30

3.00

WWWWW

-0.27

-0.56

100%

1.0

W	Fri Oct 9	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting SA GNV Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	4–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	FC America Pre (4th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	8–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC America Pre (4th)	4–1	85%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	4–1	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black

+15

2.25

WLWW

-0.20

-0.30

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	10–0

Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Sporting SA GNV Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White · Sat Nov 14 at Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	vs	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC America Pre (4th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	5–1	90%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC America Pre (4th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	3–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	4–1	84%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	5–2	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White

1.80

WWLLW

-0.32

+0.09

72%

4.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	3–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black · Sun Nov 22 vs FC America Pre · Sat Dec 12 at Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC America Pre (4th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	3–2	65%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC America Pre (4th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	3–2	65%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	3–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC America Pre

1.50

-0.77

+0.06

72%

4.0

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Sporting SA GNV Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE · Sat Nov 21 at Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	4–1	79%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	3–2	68%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	3–1	60%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	3–2	56%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–4	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Brevard SA Pre- Elite

-8

1.50

WLWL

+0.02

+0.14

14%

5.8

L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC America Pre (4th)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	7–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–9
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	4–0

Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Space Coast United Pre · Sat Jan 30 at Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE · Sun Jan 31 vs Sporting SA GNV Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	3–3	42%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	4–3	50%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC America Pre (4th)	2–3	28%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	2–3	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	2–5	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Space Coast United Pre

-6

1.40

LDWLW

+0.81

-0.30

38%

4.9

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC America Pre (4th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	5–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–6

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Sporting SA GNV Pre · Sat Dec 5 at Brevard SA Pre- Elite · Sun Dec 6 at Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–1	42%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	3–3	41%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	3–2	54%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	3–2	66%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC America Pre (4th)	1–3	24%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	3–2	54%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE

-14

0.75

LLLW

+0.04

+0.26

7.6

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	5–7
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	0–10

Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC America Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black · Sat Dec 5 vs FC America Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC America Pre (4th)	1–4	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC America Pre (4th)	2–3	18%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	3–4	36%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	2–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2

-17

0.20

LDLLL

+0.90

-0.07

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	0–4
L	Fri Oct 9	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–8
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Dec 5 at Sporting SA GNV Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	0–2	17%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	FC America Pre (4th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC America Pre (4th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Sporting SA GNV Pre (9th)	1–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA GNV Pre

-4

0.00

-0.88

+0.22

7.0

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sun Sep 20 at Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black · Sat Oct 17 vs FC America Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Space Coast United Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	FC America Pre (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	1–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	2–0	63%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	FC America Pre (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- White (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre- Black (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Space Coast United Pre (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Brevard SA Pre- Elite (5th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ormond Beach Soccer Club PRE (7th)	2–2	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.