OK Energy FC Texas

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU15 · 14 teams · Oklahoma Energy FC (all teams)

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1st

6-0-2 record · 8 played

2.25 points per game

+2 goal diff · 11–9

WWLLWlast 5

95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1

+0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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OK Energy FC Texas
1st · 2.25 PPG

Sting Black
12th · 1.00 PPG

Edmond Soccer Club, ESC 11 ↗

64% 20% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.9 against · 2.12 expected points)

Season so far	OK Energy FC Texas	Sting Black
Position	1st	12th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-2	2-0-4
Points per game	2.25	1.00
Goals for / game	1.4	1.0
Goals against / game	1.1	2.0
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	W L L W W	L L W L W
Biggest win	3–1 vs Lonestar ATX Royal	3–1 at Dallas Texans
Worst loss	0–3 at Albion Hurricanes FC	1–6 vs Challenge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.21	-0.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.05	-0.04

Common opponents: Lonestar SAT — we 1–0; they 0–1. FC Westlake White — we 1–0; they 0–1. Sting Royal — we 0–2; they 1–3. Albion Hurricanes FC — we 0–3; they 1–0. Challenge — we 3–2; they 1–6.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Sting Black concede 2.0/game; worst result 1–6 vs Challenge.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Sting Royal, 0–3 at Albion Hurricanes FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 20% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (OK Energy FC Texas – Sting Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.11 PPG	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.00 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

45% finish 1st

95% top 4

5% below the top 4

2.1 average finish

1st 45%
2nd 27%
3rd 16%
4th 8%
5th 3%
6th 2%
7th 1%
8th <1%
9th <1%
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

13 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link OK Energy FC Texas to Sting Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

3 even

4 favour them

+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 14th hardest of 14

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Sting Black 12th · 2-0-4 · GD -6	Home Edmond Soccer Club	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–0	2.12	2.24	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	DKSC 5th · 2-3-1 · GD +0	Home Edmond Soccer Club	●●●●○ Tough	42%	1–0	1.56	2.17	Upside
Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM	West Side Alliance 9th · 1-6-1 · GD +0	Home North Oklahoma City FC	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–0	1.52	2.11	Upside
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	Dallas Texans 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Western Hills High School	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–1	1.34	2.05	Upside
Sat Dec 5 09:00 AM	SOLAR SC 8th · 2-1-3 · GD +2	Home North Oklahoma City FC	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.59	2.01	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

OK Energy FC Texas

2.25

WWLLW

+0.05

-0.08

95%

2.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Challenge (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting Royal (6th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 6	at	FC Westlake White (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Lonestar SAT (14th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Black · Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC · Sat Nov 7 vs West Side Alliance See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Black (12th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	DKSC (5th)	1–0	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–0	40%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Dallas Texans (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	SOLAR SC (8th)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Blue

2.00

WLDWW

+0.04

-0.05

74%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Texans (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR SC (8th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	1–0	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Royal (6th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–0	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Challenge (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar SAT (14th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat May 1	vs	DKSC (5th)	0–0	41%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Sting Black (12th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	1–0	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans

1.86

DWWWL

-0.17

+0.20

39%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	SOLAR SC (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lonestar SAT (14th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Black (12th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 6 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Apr 24 at FC Dallas Youth See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–0	38%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat May 1	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun May 2	at	Challenge (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sting Royal (6th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge

1.60

WWDDL

-0.09

-0.02

78%

3.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	0–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	DKSC (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Black (12th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake White · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar SAT · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dallas Youth See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar SAT (14th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sting Royal (6th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SOLAR SC (8th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Dallas Texans (3rd)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 8	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	1–0	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC

1.50

DWDWD

-0.00

19%

7.0

D	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Westlake White (11th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar SAT (14th)	2–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR SC (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sat Apr 17 vs Sting Royal See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	0–0	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	0–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sting Royal (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–1	27%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–0	23%
·	Sun May 2	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	0–0	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sting Black (12th)	1–0	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Royal

-1

1.50

WLWL

+0.04

+0.02

15%

7.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Black (12th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Nov 21 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Challenge (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	DKSC (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SOLAR SC (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	1–0	46%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Lonestar SAT (14th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Dallas Texans (3rd)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth

1.33

LDW

+0.02

-0.05

54%

4.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Royal (6th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	0–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sun Nov 8 at FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 21 at Challenge See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	1–0	49%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–0	34%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Challenge (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sting Black (12th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	DKSC (5th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Dallas Texans (3rd)	1–0	51%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Lonestar SAT (14th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SOLAR SC (8th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR SC

1.17

WWLLL

-0.09

+0.08

8.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Dallas Texans (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lonestar SAT (14th)	4–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Black · Sat Dec 5 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 13 at West Side Alliance See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting Black (12th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	0–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting Royal (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat May 1	at	Challenge (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun May 2	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

1.13

DWDDD

+0.05

-0.05

8.5

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	0–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge (4th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Royal (6th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 6	at	Lonestar SAT (14th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 5	at	FC Westlake White (11th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Black · Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC Texas See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC (5th)	0–0	34%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Black (12th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Dallas Texans (3rd)	0–1	30%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	SOLAR SC (8th)	1–0	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX Royal

-2

1.00

LDLW

+0.11

-0.02

8.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR SC (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans (3rd)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Royal See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sting Royal (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	0–0	34%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	0–0	39%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar SAT (14th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sting Black (12th)	1–0	49%
·	Sun May 2	vs	DKSC (5th)	0–0	31%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Challenge (4th)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake White

-3

1.00

DDLWD

-0.00

+0.05

11.2

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	DKSC (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Black (12th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR SC (8th)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans (3rd)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 6	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	0–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Challenge · Sun Nov 8 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sat Apr 17 at Lonestar SAT See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Challenge (4th)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	0–0	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar SAT (14th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	0–0	27%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sting Royal (6th)	0–1	26%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–1	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Black

-6

1.00

WLWLL

-0.04

+0.13

12.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar SAT (14th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake White (11th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge (4th)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans (3rd)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Royal (6th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Oct 25 at West Side Alliance · Sat Nov 21 at SOLAR SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SOLAR SC (8th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–1	16%
·	Sat May 1	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	0–1	24%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat May 8	vs	DKSC (5th)	0–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albion Hurricanes FC

-1

0.80

LLLWD

+0.05

-0.02

9.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting Black (12th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	DKSC (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Challenge (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar SAT · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake White · Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Royal See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar SAT (14th)	1–0	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	0–0	41%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting Royal (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	0–0	34%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Dallas Texans (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	SOLAR SC (8th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT

-4

0.67

DLLLW

-0.05

+0.11

12.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Black (12th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Dallas Texans (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR SC (8th)	2–4
D	Sun Sep 6	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (1st)	0–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Nov 8 at Challenge · Sat Apr 17 vs FC Westlake White See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (13th)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Challenge (4th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Westlake White (11th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Westlake Blue (2nd)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (10th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–2	14%
·	Sun May 2	at	Sting Royal (6th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.16 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.