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DKSC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU15 · 14 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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5th
2-3-1 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
+0 goal diff · 5–5
DWDWDlast 5
19% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.0
-0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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DKSC
5th · 1.50 PPG
at
West Side Alliance
9th · 1.13 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 6 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 0–0 (expected goals 0.6 for, 0.7 against · 1.21 expected points)

Season so farDKSCWest Side Alliance
Position5th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-3-11-6-1
Points per game1.501.13
Goals for / game0.80.8
Goals against / game0.80.8
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless34
Form (recent first)D W D W DD D D W D
Biggest win1–0 vs Albion Hurricanes FC2–1 at Sting Royal
Worst loss0–2 at Dallas Texans0–1 vs FC Westlake Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.02+0.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.00+0.05

Common opponents: Albion Hurricanes FC — we 1–0; they 0–0. Challenge — we 0–0; they 0–0. Lonestar SAT — we 2–1; they 2–2. FC Westlake White — we 0–0; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at Dallas Texans, 0–0 vs Challenge, 0–0 at FC Westlake White.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (39%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at RiverCity Parks.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Challenge sit 4th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Challenge on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.43 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2
Win
1.71 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1
Draw
1.43 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.29 PPG
8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–0 draw we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
19% top 4
81% below the top 4
7.0 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 6%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 OK Energy FC Texas 2.25 (+0.75) 1st (2.01) 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
2 FC Westlake Blue 2.00 (+0.50) 2nd (1.80) 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
3 Dallas Texans 1.86 (+0.36) 5th (1.58) 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
4 Challenge 1.60 (+0.10) 3rd (1.80) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
3 even
6 favour them
+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 0–0 0–0 0–0 2–1 2–2 1–0 0–0 2–2 0–1 1–0 1–1 1–3 0–1 1–1 0–2 2–1 1–0 4–2 DKSC 5th FC Westlake White 11th Challenge 4th Lonestar SAT 14th Albion Hurricanes FC 13th SOLAR SC 8th Dallas Texans 3rd FC Westlake Blue 2nd Lonestar ATX Royal 10th West Side Alliance 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.00 · 7th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
West Side Alliance
9th · 1-6-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks
●●●●○ Tough
27%
0–0 1.21 1.46 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
OK Energy FC Texas
1st · 6-0-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club
●●●●○ Tough
28%
0–1 1.13 1.42 Upside
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
Sting Royal
6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
Clark East Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.58 1.44 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
03:00 PM
FC Dallas Youth
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +3
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●○ Tough
27%
0–1 1.13 1.40 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
FC Westlake Blue
2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
0–0 1.05 1.37 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
Lonestar ATX Royal
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
35%
0–0 1.39 1.37 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Sting Black
12th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–0 1.67 1.40 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 OK Energy FC Texas 8602 119+2 182.25 WWLLW +0.05 -0.08 94% 2.1
2 FC Westlake Blue 5311 53+2 102.00 WLDWW +0.04 -0.05 73% 3.4
3 Dallas Texans 7412 108+2 131.86 DWWWL -0.17 +0.20 41% 5.3
4 Challenge 5221 115+6 81.60 WWDDL -0.09 -0.02 76% 3.3
5 DKSC 6231 55+0 91.50 DWDWD -0.00 -0.00 19% 7.0
6 Sting Royal 4202 67-1 61.50 WLWL +0.04 +0.02 17% 7.8
7 FC Dallas Youth 3111 52+3 41.33 LDW +0.02 -0.05 55% 4.6
8 SOLAR SC 6213 108+2 71.17 WWLLL -0.09 +0.08 8% 8.4
9 West Side Alliance 8161 66+0 91.13 DWDDD +0.05 -0.05 4% 8.5
10 Lonestar ATX Royal 4112 35-2 41.00 LDLW +0.11 -0.02 7% 9.1
11 FC Westlake White 7142 47-3 71.00 DDLWD -0.00 +0.05 0% 11.2
12 Sting Black 6204 612-6 61.00 WLWLL -0.04 +0.13 0% 12.2
13 Albion Hurricanes FC 5113 45-1 40.80 LLLWD +0.05 -0.02 5% 9.4
14 Lonestar SAT 6114 711-4 40.67 DLLLW -0.05 +0.11 0% 12.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.16 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.