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West Side Alliance

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU13 · 14 teams · West Side Alliance SC (all teams)

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12th
2-0-6 record · 8 played
0.75 points per game
-18 goal diff · 4–22
WLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.8
+0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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West Side Alliance
12th · 0.75 PPG
vs
DKSC
5th · 2.00 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.6 for, 3.1 against · 0.22 expected points)

Season so farWest Side AllianceDKSC
Position12th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-62-2-0
Points per game0.752.00
Goals for / game0.52.3
Goals against / game2.80.8
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless61
Form (recent first)L L L L WW D D W
Biggest win3–1 vs FC Westlake Blue4–0 at Dallas Texans
Worst loss0–6 at FC Dallas Youth—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.62+0.86
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.12+0.05

Common opponents: FC Westlake White — we 0–2; they 2–0. Lonestar SAT — we 0–1; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    DKSC score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–2 at FC Westlake White, 0–1 at Lonestar SAT, 0–2 at Sting Royal, 0–6 at FC Dallas Youth, 0–6 at Challenge, 0–4 at Albion Hurricanes FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Sting Black sit 11th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A win moves us above Sting Black on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Side Alliance – DKSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Draw
0.78 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Loss
0.67 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 27%
  13. 13th 48%
  14. 14th 21%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.62 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Albion Hurricanes FC 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.20) 33 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SOLAR SC 2.33 (+1.58) 2nd (2.14) 25 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth 2.33 (+1.58) 4th (1.98) 25 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Challenge 2.00 (+1.25) 3rd (2.03) 20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 DKSC 2.00 (+1.25) 5th (1.94) 20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Sting Royal 2.00 (+1.25) 6th (1.68) 20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Dallas Texans 1.71 (+0.96) 7th (1.37) 17 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
8 FC Westlake White 1.50 (+0.75) 10th (1.11) 14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
9 Lonestar SAT 1.17 (+0.42) 9th (1.17) 10 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
10 OK Energy FC Texas 1.13 (+0.38) 8th (1.22) 9 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
11 Sting Black 1.00 (+0.25) 11th (1.10) Win next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link West Side Alliance to DKSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
9 favour them
-3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 0–0 0–2 0–2 1–0 0–0 3–3 3–1 0–4 1–2 1–2 0–4 0–2 1–2 1–2 0–8 West Side Alliance 12th Lonestar SAT 9th FC Westlake White 8th Lonestar ATX Royal 13th FC Westlake Blue 14th SOLAR SC 2nd Dallas Texans 7th DKSC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.35 · 1st hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
DKSC
5th · 2-2-0 · GD +6
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.22 0.69 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
Sting Black
11th · 1-1-2 · GD -1
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–2 0.64 0.69 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
OK Energy FC Texas
10th · 3-0-5 · GD -1
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.47 0.67 Upside
Sun Dec 6
09:00 AM
Dallas Texans
7th · 4-0-3 · GD -3
Away far trip
Western Hills High School
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.48 0.65 Upside
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM
SOLAR SC
2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +16
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.10 0.61 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Albion Hurricanes FC 3300 71+6 93.00 WWW -0.28 +0.04 86% 2.6
2 SOLAR SC 6420 204+16 142.33 WWWWD -0.40 +0.20 88% 2.6
3 FC Dallas Youth 3210 92+7 72.33 WWD -0.41 +0.10 65% 3.8
4 Challenge 3201 81+7 62.00 LWW -0.32 +0.04 75% 3.3
5 DKSC 4220 93+6 82.00 WDDW +0.05 -0.05 61% 3.9
6 Sting Royal 4220 52+3 82.00 DWWD -0.19 +0.14 22% 5.6
7 Dallas Texans 7403 1013-3 121.71 WWLWW -0.10 +0.26 1% 7.8
8 FC Westlake White 6303 613-7 91.50 WLLWL +0.08 +0.18 0% 9.8
9 Lonestar SAT 6213 56-1 71.17 WLLDW +0.08 +0.09 1% 9.0
10 OK Energy FC Texas 8305 89-1 91.13 WLLLL +0.12 +0.04 0% 8.6
11 Sting Black 4112 56-1 41.00 DWLL -0.24 +0.20 0% 9.5
12 West Side Alliance 8206 422-18 60.75 WLLLL +0.12 +0.35 0% 12.8
13 Lonestar ATX Royal 4013 06-6 10.25 LLLD -0.07 +0.22 0% 12.5
14 FC Westlake Blue 4004 210-8 00.00 LLLL -0.07 +0.25 0% 13.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.