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Dallas Texans

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU13 · 14 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

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7th
4-0-3 record · 7 played
1.71 points per game
-3 goal diff · 10–13
WWLWWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.8
-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 21, 09:00 AM

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Dallas Texans
7th · 1.71 PPG
vs
OK Energy FC Texas
10th · 1.13 PPG

Western Hills High School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.32 expected points)

Season so farDallas TexansOK Energy FC Texas
Position7th10th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-33-0-5
Points per game1.711.13
Goals for / game1.41.0
Goals against / game1.91.1
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)W W L W WL L L L W
Biggest win2–0 vs Lonestar ATX Royal3–0 vs Lonestar ATX Royal
Worst loss0–4 vs DKSC0–2 at Challenge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.36-0.07
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.10+0.12

Common opponents: FC Westlake White — we 2–1; they 0–1. Lonestar SAT — we 2–1; they 2–1. Lonestar ATX Royal — we 2–0; they 3–0. FC Westlake Blue — we 2–1; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs DKSC, 0–3 at SOLAR SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    OK Energy FC Texas have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the OK Energy FC Texas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans – OK Energy FC Texas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.63 PPG
7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Win
1.88 PPG
7th— holds 5th▲ up 2 7th— holds
Draw
1.63 PPG
7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 29%
  8. 8th 24%
  9. 9th 19%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Albion Hurricanes FC 3.00 (+1.29) 1st (2.20) 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
2 SOLAR SC 2.33 (+0.62) 2nd (2.14) 19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
3 FC Dallas Youth 2.33 (+0.62) 4th (1.98) 19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
4 Challenge 2.00 (+0.29) 3rd (2.03) 14 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
5 DKSC 2.00 (+0.29) 5th (1.94) 14 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
6 Sting Royal 2.00 (+0.29) 6th (1.68) 14 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans to OK Energy FC Texas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
4 even
7 favour them
-0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 0–1 2–1 1–2 2–0 0–3 2–1 1–0 0–3 4–0 2–3 1–1 1–0 1–2 0–4 2–0 2–1 0–1 0–0 8–0 Dallas Texans 7th FC Westlake Blue 14th Lonestar SAT 9th Lonestar ATX Royal 13th FC Westlake White 8th SOLAR SC 2nd Sting Black 11th DKSC 5th Sting Royal 6th OK Energy FC Texas 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 2nd hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
OK Energy FC Texas
10th · 3-0-5 · GD -1
Home
Western Hills High School
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.32 1.67 Upside
Sun Dec 6
09:00 AM
West Side Alliance
12th · 2-0-6 · GD -18
Home
Western Hills High School
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.36 1.74 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Away far trip
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–2 0.47 1.62 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Albion Hurricanes FC
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.48 1.51 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
Challenge
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Away far trip
Burroughs Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.42 1.42 Upside
Sat May 8
11:00 AM
Sting Royal
6th · 2-2-0 · GD +3
Away far trip
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
18%
0–1 0.79 1.37 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Albion Hurricanes FC 3300 71+6 93.00 WWW -0.28 +0.04 86% 2.6
2 SOLAR SC 6420 204+16 142.33 WWWWD -0.40 +0.20 89% 2.6
3 FC Dallas Youth 3210 92+7 72.33 WWD -0.41 +0.10 67% 3.7
4 Challenge 3201 81+7 62.00 LWW -0.32 +0.04 74% 3.3
5 DKSC 4220 93+6 82.00 WDDW +0.05 -0.05 61% 3.9
6 Sting Royal 4220 52+3 82.00 DWWD -0.19 +0.14 21% 5.6
7 Dallas Texans 7403 1013-3 121.71 WWLWW -0.10 +0.26 1% 7.8
8 FC Westlake White 6303 613-7 91.50 WLLWL +0.08 +0.18 0% 9.8
9 Lonestar SAT 6213 56-1 71.17 WLLDW +0.08 +0.09 0% 9.0
10 OK Energy FC Texas 8305 89-1 91.13 WLLLL +0.12 +0.04 0% 8.6
11 Sting Black 4112 56-1 41.00 DWLL -0.24 +0.20 0% 9.6
12 West Side Alliance 8206 422-18 60.75 WLLLL +0.12 +0.35 0% 12.8
13 Lonestar ATX Royal 4013 06-6 10.25 LLLD -0.07 +0.22 0% 12.5
14 FC Westlake Blue 4004 210-8 00.00 LLLL -0.07 +0.25 0% 13.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.