NB AJAX STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU18/19 · 9 teams · NB Ajax Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.3 against · 2.28 expected points)
| Season so far | NB AJAX STXCL | Lonestar SAT STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-2 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L W | L L W L |
| Biggest win | 8–0 at 210 FC STXCL | 2–1 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Force FC STXCL | 0–5 vs Force FC STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.54 | -0.78 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.01 | +0.20 |
Common opponents: 210 FC STXCL — we 8–0; they 0–1. Force FC STXCL — we 0–4; they 0–5.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Lonestar SAT STXCL average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 3 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Force FC STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
LTFC STXCL sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.A win moves us above LTFC STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lonestar SAT STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NB AJAX STXCL – Lonestar SAT STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 23%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 1%
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Force FC STXCL | 3.00 (+1.20) | 1st (2.74) | 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL | 2.00 (+0.20) | 4th (1.72) | Win next game |
| 3 | LTFC STXCL | 2.00 (+0.20) | 6th (1.46) | Win next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link NB AJAX STXCL to Lonestar SAT STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Lonestar SAT STXCL 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 1.88 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Lonestar RGV STXCL 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +5 |
Away ASP / CC |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
2–2 | 1.07 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Sting CC STXCL Hennessy 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 1.76 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Force FC STXCL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.20 | -0.54 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs 210 FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL · Fri Nov 13 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.28 | +0.13 | 68% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 1 vs Force FC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | LTFC STXCL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.67 | +0.47 | 35% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NB AJAX STXCL | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | -0.01 | +0.04 | 75% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lonestar RGV STXCL | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 | 1.75 | WWDL | -0.04 | -0.01 | 81% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Oct 25 vs NB AJAX STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at LTFC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sting CC STXCL Hennessy | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | LLDWW | +0.19 | -0.32 | 40% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at 210 FC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | 210 FC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWW | -0.07 | +0.97 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Force FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lonestar SAT STXCL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.20 | -0.01 | 1% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NB AJAX STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Nov 7 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.23 | +0.55 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.