Lonestar RGV STXCL

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU18/19 · 9 teams · Lonestar SAT (all teams)

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5th

2-1-1 record · 4 played

1.75 points per game

+5 goal diff · 10–5

WWDLlast 4

80% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3

-0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Lonestar RGV STXCL
5th · 1.75 PPG

Lonestar ATX STXCL White
9th · 0.00 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 2 ↗

78% 13% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.0 against · 2.46 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar RGV STXCL	Lonestar ATX STXCL White
Position	5th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-1	0-0-4
Points per game	1.75	0.00
Goals for / game	2.5	0.8
Goals against / game	1.3	2.8
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	L D W W	L L L L
Biggest win	6–0 at 210 FC STXCL	—
Worst loss	2–4 at Force FC STXCL	1–4 at NB AJAX STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.71	-1.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.04	-0.23

Common opponents: 210 FC STXCL — we 6–0; they 0–2. Sting CC STXCL Hennessy — we 1–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Lonestar ATX STXCL White average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 1 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Lonestar ATX STXCL White have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
What a win does
NB AJAX STXCL sit 4th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.75.
A point moves us above NB AJAX STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX STXCL White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar RGV STXCL – Lonestar ATX STXCL White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 3	2nd▲ up 3	4th▲ up 1
Win 2.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 3	3rd▲ up 2	5th— holds
Draw 1.60 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.40 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

80% top 4

20% below the top 4

3.3 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 38%
3rd 23%
4th 19%
5th 13%
6th 6%
7th 1%
8th <1%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Force FC STXCL	3.00 (+1.25)	1st (2.74)	17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL	2.00 (+0.25)	4th (1.72)	Win next game
3	LTFC STXCL	2.00 (+0.25)	6th (1.46)	Win next game
4	NB AJAX STXCL	1.80 (+0.05)	3rd (1.76)	A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar RGV STXCL to Lonestar ATX STXCL White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 6th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STXCL White 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -8	Home ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	2–0	2.46	1.89	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	NB AJAX STXCL 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +5	Home ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–2	1.75	1.87	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM	LTFC STXCL 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2	Away ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–1	1.61	1.83	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +4	Home ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–2	1.80	1.83	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Force FC STXCL

+12

3.00

WWWW

+0.20

-0.54

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	NB AJAX STXCL (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs 210 FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL · Fri Nov 13 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	210 FC STXCL (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL (2nd)	3–2	65%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (9th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL

2.00

WWL

-0.28

+0.13

70%

3.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (6th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	210 FC STXCL (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (4th)	6–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 1 vs Force FC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (9th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Force FC STXCL (1st)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (5th)	2–2	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC STXCL

2.00

WWL

-0.67

+0.47

35%

4.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (4th)	1–2
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	210 FC STXCL (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Sting CC STXCL Hennessy · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar RGV STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL (2nd)	2–2	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (6th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (5th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Force FC STXCL (1st)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NB AJAX STXCL

1.80

WLWWL

-0.01

+0.04

76%

3.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Force FC STXCL (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (9th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL (2nd)	3–6
W	Sun Sep 13	at	210 FC STXCL (7th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (5th)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (6th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar RGV STXCL

1.75

WWDL

-0.04

-0.01

80%

3.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Force FC STXCL (1st)	2–4
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	210 FC STXCL (7th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Oct 25 vs NB AJAX STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at LTFC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (4th)	2–2	52%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL (2nd)	2–2	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Hennessy

1.40

LLDWW

+0.19

-0.32

37%

4.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (9th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL (2nd)	4–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Force FC STXCL (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at 210 FC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	210 FC STXCL (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	NB AJAX STXCL (4th)	1–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

210 FC STXCL

-15

1.00

LLLWW

-0.07

+0.97

7.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (9th)	2–0
W	Thu Oct 15	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (5th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (4th)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Force FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC STXCL Hennessy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Force FC STXCL (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (6th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT STXCL

-6

0.75

LWLL

+0.20

-0.01

7.4

L	Thu Oct 15	at	210 FC STXCL (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar RGV STXCL (5th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Force FC STXCL (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NB AJAX STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Nov 7 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NB AJAX STXCL (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL White

-8

0.00

LLLL

-0.23

+0.55

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting CC STXCL Hennessy (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	210 FC STXCL (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NB AJAX STXCL (4th)	1–4
L	Fri Sep 25	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar RGV STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar RGV STXCL (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL (2nd)	1–3	16%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	Force FC STXCL (1st)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.