Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU16 · 16 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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2nd

6-0-0 record · 6 played

3.00 points per game

+13 goal diff · 14–1

WWWWWlast 5

98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6

-0.61 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM

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Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Lonestar SAT STXCL
14th · 0.17 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 3 ↗ far trip

95%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.1 for, 0.4 against · 2.90 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White	Lonestar SAT STXCL
Position	2nd	14th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-0	0-1-5
Points per game	3.00	0.17
Goals for / game	2.3	0.2
Goals against / game	0.2	5.5
Clean sheets	5	0
Held scoreless	0	5
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L D L L L
Biggest win	6–0 vs FC Westlake North STXCL	—
Worst loss	—	0–10 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.27	-3.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.61	+1.31

Common opponents: SG1 STXCL — we 2–0; they 0–6. RISE SC STXCL — we 1–0; they 0–2.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Lonestar SAT STXCL average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 5 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Lonestar SAT STXCL concede 5.5/game; worst result 0–10 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 4–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at ASP / CC.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.
A win moves us above AHFC CENTRAL STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar SAT STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White – Lonestar SAT STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.71 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.57 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st

98% top 4

2% below the top 4

2.6 average finish

1st 5%
2nd 49%
3rd 29%
4th 15%
5th 2%
6th <1%
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL	3.00 (+0.00)	1st (2.82)	Win next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White to Lonestar SAT STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

2 even

1 favour them

+4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 5th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM	Lonestar SAT STXCL 14th · 0-1-5 · GD -32	Away far trip ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	4–0	2.90	2.99	Bank it
Fri Nov 6 08:00 PM	TC Premier SC STXCL 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +19	Home Town & Country	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.39	2.79	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Force FC STXCL 9th · 3-2-2 · GD -5	Away far trip Georgetown Soccer Association	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.30	2.73	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	AHFC WEST STXCL 11th · 1-1-2 · GD -4	Away far trip Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	2–0	2.41	2.70	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM	AHFC NW STXCL 13th · 1-1-4 · GD -8	Away far trip Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	2–0	2.43	2.68	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 03:00 PM	AHFC EAST STXCL 3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +14	Home Westcreek	●●●●○ Tough	42%	1–0	1.54	2.58	Upside
Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +41	Home Westcreek	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–1	0.91	2.45	Upside
Fri Apr 23 08:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 12th · 2-0-5 · GD -4	Away Town & Country	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	1–0	2.21	2.44	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM	FC Westlake Central STXCL 8th · 3-2-2 · GD +3	Away Hill Country Middle School	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–0	1.95	2.40	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

+41

3.00

WWWWW

-0.36

-0.12

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 STXCL (6th)	5–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Force FC STXCL (9th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	10–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Westlake North STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Challenge STXCL (10th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	7–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	5–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White

+13

3.00

WWWWW

-0.61

+0.21

98%

2.6

W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge STXCL (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SG1 STXCL (6th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar SAT STXCL · Fri Nov 6 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Force FC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	4–0	95%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Force FC STXCL (9th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–0	42%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Fri Apr 23	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	1–0	66%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–0	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC EAST STXCL

+14

2.33

WDDWW

-0.73

+0.34

78%

3.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Force FC STXCL (9th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake North STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	1–0	67%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SG1 STXCL (6th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Challenge STXCL (10th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

+19

2.17

WLDWW

-0.35

-0.06

93%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	10–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Fri Nov 6 at Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	4–0	93%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SG1 STXCL (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge STXCL (10th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Force FC STXCL (9th)	3–0	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

2.00

LWWWL

-0.02

+0.02

16%

5.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Challenge STXCL (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SG1 STXCL (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Force FC STXCL (9th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	1–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 STXCL

1.71

WWWLL

-0.12

+0.12

6.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Force FC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Force FC STXCL (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Challenge STXCL (10th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

-2

1.71

LWLLW

+0.73

-0.62

6.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	SG1 STXCL (6th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	5–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Challenge STXCL (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Force FC STXCL (9th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	3–2	59%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Central STXCL

1.57

DWDWL

-0.79

+0.65

8.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Force FC STXCL (9th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge STXCL (10th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SG1 STXCL (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–1	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force FC STXCL

-5

1.57

DLWLW

+0.21

-0.18

8.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–7
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SG1 STXCL (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge STXCL (10th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge STXCL

-1

1.20

LWWLL

-0.05

+0.03

9.5

L	Sun Sep 27	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Force FC STXCL (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SG1 STXCL (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC WEST STXCL

-4

1.00

DLWL

-0.02

+0.04

10.7

L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	2–6
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Force FC STXCL (9th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at SG1 STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SG1 STXCL (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–7	1%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Challenge STXCL (10th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-4

0.86

LLLWW

-0.22

+0.21

11.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Force FC STXCL (9th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge STXCL (10th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	SG1 STXCL (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	12%
·	Fri Apr 16	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–0	71%
·	Fri Apr 23	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–1	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC NW STXCL

-8

0.67

LDWLL

+0.29

-0.10

12.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	SG1 STXCL (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Force FC STXCL (9th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Challenge STXCL (10th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	1–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT STXCL

-32

0.17

LLLDL

+1.31

-0.56

15.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–10
D	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	SG1 STXCL (6th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 14 at Dynamos STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge STXCL (10th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Force FC STXCL (9th)	0–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake North STXCL

-16

0.00

LLLLL

-0.17

+0.33

14.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Force FC STXCL (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge STXCL (10th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	3–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC EAST STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SG1 STXCL (6th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-26

0.00

LLLLL

+1.50

-0.78

14.7

L	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White (2nd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SG1 STXCL (6th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC STXCL (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (1st)	0–10

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Force FC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Challenge STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (8th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Force FC STXCL (9th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge STXCL (10th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (13th)	1–1	19%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (11th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (14th)	1–1	51%
·	Fri Apr 16	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (12th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.