AHFC WEST STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU16 · 16 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.8 against · 0.75 expected points)
| Season so far | AHFC WEST STXCL | SG1 STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-2 | 4-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L D | L L W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at FC Westlake North STXCL | 6–0 at Lonestar SAT STXCL |
| Worst loss | 2–6 vs TC Premier SC STXCL | 1–5 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.59 | +0.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.02 | -0.12 |
Game plan
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Dyess Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Challenge STXCL sit 10th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Challenge STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SG1 STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC WEST STXCL – SG1 STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.80 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.40 PPG |
10th▲ up 1 | 10th▲ up 1 | 11th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
| Loss 0.80 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 12%
- 10th 16%
- 11th 21%
- 12th 22%
- 13th 16%
- 14th 2%
- 15th <1%
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.82) | 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White | 3.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (2.40) | 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 2.33 (+1.33) | 4th (2.10) | 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 4 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 2.17 (+1.17) | 3rd (2.26) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 5 | RISE SC STXCL | 2.00 (+1.00) | 5th (1.77) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | SG1 STXCL | 1.71 (+0.71) | 7th (1.61) | 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | Dynamos STXCL | 1.71 (+0.71) | 6th (1.72) | 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 8 | FC Westlake Central STXCL | 1.57 (+0.57) | 9th (1.36) | 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 9 | Force FC STXCL | 1.57 (+0.57) | 8th (1.39) | 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 10 | Challenge STXCL | 1.20 (+0.20) | 10th (1.28) | A point next game |
How the results connect
15 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link AHFC WEST STXCL to SG1 STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 7th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
SG1 STXCL 6th · 4-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
AHFC EAST STXCL 3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +14 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.45 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
RISE SC STXCL 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.71 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White 2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.44 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 12th · 2-0-5 · GD -4 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.57 | 0.88 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM |
Lonestar SAT STXCL 14th · 0-1-5 · GD -32 |
Away far trip
Classics Elite Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.59 | 1.05 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 16th · 0-0-6 · GD -26 |
Away far trip
Westcreek |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 1.17 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 08:00 AM |
AHFC NW STXCL 13th · 1-1-4 · GD -8 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 04:00 PM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +41 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–7 | 0.03 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Dynamos STXCL 7th · 4-0-3 · GD -2 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
2–3 | 0.90 | 1.12 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM |
Challenge STXCL 10th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.13 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 4 | +41 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.36 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Westlake North STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.61 | +0.21 | 98% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar SAT STXCL · Fri Nov 6 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Force FC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 14 | 2.33 | WDDWW | -0.73 | +0.34 | 78% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake North STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 13 | 2.17 | WLDWW | -0.35 | -0.06 | 94% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Fri Nov 6 at Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | RISE SC STXCL | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | -0.02 | +0.02 | 15% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SG1 STXCL | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWLL | -0.12 | +0.12 | 5% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Force FC STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Dynamos STXCL | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 | 1.71 | LWLLW | +0.73 | -0.62 | 10% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Westlake Central STXCL | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 | 1.57 | DWDWL | -0.79 | +0.65 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Force FC STXCL | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 11 | 1.57 | DLWLW | +0.21 | -0.18 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Challenge STXCL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | -0.05 | +0.03 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | AHFC WEST STXCL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | -0.02 | +0.04 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SG1 STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWW | -0.22 | +0.21 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | AHFC NW STXCL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | LDWLL | +0.29 | -0.10 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Lonestar SAT STXCL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLDL | +1.31 | -0.56 | 0% | 15.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL /11White · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 14 at Dynamos STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | FC Westlake North STXCL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.17 | +0.33 | 0% | 14.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC EAST STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 27 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.50 | -0.78 | 0% | 14.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Force FC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Challenge STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.