LTFC STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU13 · 14 teams · LTFC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
ASP / CC, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.3 for, 0.9 against · 2.57 expected points)
| Season so far | LTFC STXCL | Boerne SC STXCL Red |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-1 | 3-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.57 | 1.29 |
| Goals for / game | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | L L W L W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 5–0 at Pflugerville FC STXCL Green |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL | 1–4 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.42 | -0.15 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.30 | -0.62 |
Common opponents: TC Premier SC STXCL — we 7–0; they 0–2. Lonestar SAT STXCL I — we 3–1; they 1–4. FC Westlake STXCL — we 5–1; they 4–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at ASP / CC.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Boerne SC STXCL Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LTFC STXCL – Boerne SC STXCL Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.63 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.63 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.38 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 18%
- 2nd 34%
- 3rd 36%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lonestar SAT STXCL II | 3.00 (+0.43) | 1st (2.62) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 2 | FC Westlake North STXCL | 3.00 (+0.43) | 2nd (2.54) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
How the results connect
26 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link LTFC STXCL to Boerne SC STXCL Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.06 · 8th hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Boerne SC STXCL Red 8th · 3-0-4 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–0 | 2.57 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 13th · 0-0-6 · GD -13 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.61 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Pflugerville FC STXCL Green 14th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Away Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.99 | 2.64 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX STXCL Red 6th · 6-1-2 · GD +10 |
Away Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 2.59 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Lonestar SAT STXCL II 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +27 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 2.49 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM |
Lions FC STXCL RED 5th · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Classics Elite Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 2.46 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Lonestar SAT STXCL II | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | +27 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.62 | +0.11 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Wed Nov 11 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Westlake North STXCL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | +13 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.01 | -0.22 | 97% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar SAT STXCL II · Sat Oct 31 vs Lions FC STXCL RED See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | LTFC STXCL | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 3 | +26 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | -0.30 | -0.06 | 97% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Boerne SC STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Pflugerville FC STXCL Green See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | -0.88 | +0.73 | 72% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lions FC STXCL RED See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lions FC STXCL RED | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -0.72 | +0.30 | 22% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake North STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lonestar ATX STXCL Red | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 19 | 2.11 | WWDWW | -0.39 | +0.62 | 12% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs LTFC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Westlake Central STXCL | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 9 | 1.29 | WLLWL | -0.04 | -0.10 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL II · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Oct 31 vs Boerne SC STXCL Red See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Boerne SC STXCL Red | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 9 | 1.29 | WLWLL | -0.62 | +0.73 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Westlake STXCL | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 7 | 0.88 | WLWLL | +0.16 | +0.03 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lions FC STXCL RED · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 26 | -25 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +1.21 | -0.50 | 0% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Boerne SC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL Red See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 4 | 0.57 | LLDLW | +0.19 | -0.20 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Nov 8 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Lonestar SAT STXCL I | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 | 0.57 | DLLLW | +0.78 | -0.81 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Nov 8 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.13 | -0.82 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lions FC STXCL RED · Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Pflugerville FC STXCL Green | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.36 | +0.16 | 0% | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I · Sat Nov 7 at TC Premier SC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.