Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU13 · 14 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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10th

1-0-4 record · 5 played

0.60 points per game

-25 goal diff · 1–26

LLLLWlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.0

+1.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold
10th · 0.60 PPG

Boerne SC STXCL Red
8th · 1.29 PPG

Town & Country, Field 28 ↗

9% 12% 79%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.0 for, 3.2 against · 0.39 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold	Boerne SC STXCL Red
Position	10th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-4	3-0-4
Points per game	0.60	1.29
Goals for / game	0.2	1.9
Goals against / game	5.2	1.7
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	4	2
Form (recent first)	W L L L L	L L W L W
Biggest win	1–0 at TC Premier SC STXCL	5–0 at Pflugerville FC STXCL Green
Worst loss	0–9 at LTFC STXCL	1–4 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.58	-0.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.21	-0.62

Common opponents: Lonestar SAT STXCL II — we 0–8; they 0–2. TC Premier SC STXCL — we 1–0; they 0–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–9 at LTFC STXCL, 0–8 at Lonestar SAT STXCL II, 0–4 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White, 0–5 vs Lions FC STXCL RED.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
FC Westlake STXCL sit 9th on 0.88 PPG; we are on 0.60.
A point moves us above FC Westlake STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Boerne SC STXCL Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold – Boerne SC STXCL Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.50 PPG	12th▼ down 2	12th▼ down 2	12th▼ down 2
Win 1.00 PPG	9th▲ up 1	9th▲ up 1	10th— holds
Draw 0.67 PPG	10th— holds	10th— holds	10th— holds
Loss 0.50 PPG	12th▼ down 2	12th▼ down 2	12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

12.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th <1%
8th 1%
9th 4%
10th 7%
11th 15%
12th 29%
13th 37%
14th 6%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.08 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lonestar SAT STXCL II	3.00 (+2.40)	1st (2.62)	36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Westlake North STXCL	3.00 (+2.40)	2nd (2.54)	36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	LTFC STXCL	2.57 (+1.97)	3rd (2.46)	31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Lonestar ATX STXCL White	2.57 (+1.97)	4th (2.19)	31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Lions FC STXCL RED	2.40 (+1.80)	5th (1.94)	29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red	2.11 (+1.51)	6th (1.92)	25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7	FC Westlake Central STXCL	1.29 (+0.69)	7th (1.54)	14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
8	Boerne SC STXCL Red	1.29 (+0.69)	8th (1.11)	14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
9	FC Westlake STXCL	0.88 (+0.28)	10th (0.85)	A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold to Boerne SC STXCL Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

2 even

12 favour them

-2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.50 · 12th hardest of 14

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	Boerne SC STXCL Red 8th · 3-0-4 · GD +1	Home Town & Country	●●●●● Very tough	9%	1–3	0.39	0.56	Upside
Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM	Lonestar SAT STXCL I 12th · 1-1-5 · GD -12	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.45	0.55	Upside
Fri Oct 30 06:30 PM	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red 6th · 6-1-2 · GD +10	Home Town & Country	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.19	0.50	Upside
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	FC Westlake STXCL 9th · 2-1-5 · GD -16	Home Town & Country	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–2	0.96	0.55	Upside
Fri Nov 6 08:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 13th · 0-0-6 · GD -13	Home Town & Country	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.11	0.61	Upside
Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM	FC Westlake North STXCL 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +13	Away Westlake High School	●●●●● Very tough	0%	0–4	0.03	0.56	Upside
Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green 14th · 0-0-6 · GD -32	Away far trip 1849 Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.62	0.65	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM	FC Westlake Central STXCL 7th · 3-0-4 · GD +6	Home Westcreek	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.20	0.61	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar SAT STXCL II

+27

3.00

WWWWW

-0.62

+0.11

100%

1.7

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	4–0
W	Thu Sep 24	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	8–0
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Wed Nov 11 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	1–0	48%
·	Wed Nov 11	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	3–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	7–0	100%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake North STXCL

+13

3.00

WWWWW

-0.01

-0.22

97%

2.3

W	Mon Oct 19	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	1–0

Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar SAT STXCL II · Sat Oct 31 vs Lions FC STXCL RED See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	5–0	99%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	4–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC STXCL

+26

2.57

WLWWW

-0.30

-0.06

97%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	5–1
W	Fri Oct 2	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	9–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Boerne SC STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Pflugerville FC STXCL Green See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL White

+16

2.57

WLWWW

-0.88

+0.73

72%

4.1

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	4–1
L	Fri Oct 2	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–2
W	Fri Sep 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	3–0
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lions FC STXCL RED See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lions FC STXCL RED

+10

2.40

WWLWW

-0.72

+0.30

22%

5.3

W	Thu Oct 8	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	5–0
L	Thu Sep 24	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake North STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	2–0	81%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL Red

+10

2.11

WWDWW

-0.39

+0.62

12%

5.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	0–0
W	Fri Sep 25	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	3–0
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	1–5

Next: Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs LTFC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Central STXCL

1.29

WLLWL

-0.04

-0.10

6.9

L	Mon Oct 19	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	7–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL II · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Oct 31 vs Boerne SC STXCL Red See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC STXCL Red

1.29

WLWLL

-0.62

+0.73

8.6

L	Fri Oct 23	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–1
L	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	5–0
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

-16

0.88

WLWLL

+0.16

+0.03

10.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–5
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lions FC STXCL RED · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-25

0.60

LLLLW

+1.21

-0.50

12.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–5
L	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Boerne SC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL Red See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	1–3	10%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	1–2	25%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–4	0%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

-11

0.57

LLDLW

+0.19

-0.20

11.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Nov 8 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–0	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT STXCL I

-12

0.57

DLLLW

+0.78

-0.81

9.1

W	Fri Oct 23	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–4
L	Thu Oct 8	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Nov 8 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	1–1	51%
·	Wed Nov 11	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-13

0.00

LLLLL

+1.13

-0.82

11.9

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–4
L	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lions FC STXCL RED · Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	0–0	33%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pflugerville FC STXCL Green

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.36

+0.16

13.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–6

Next: Fri Oct 23 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I · Sat Nov 7 at TC Premier SC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–5	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.