Lonestar ATX STXCL Red

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU13 · 14 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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6th

6-1-2 record · 9 played

2.11 points per game

+10 goal diff · 18–8

WWDWWlast 5

12% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4

-0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 30, 06:30 PM

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Lonestar ATX STXCL Red
6th · 2.11 PPG

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold
10th · 0.60 PPG

Town & Country, Field 24 ↗

88% 8%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.6 against · 2.73 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold
Position	6th	10th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-2	1-0-4
Points per game	2.11	0.60
Goals for / game	2.0	0.2
Goals against / game	0.9	5.2
Clean sheets	6	1
Held scoreless	1	4
Form (recent first)	W W D W W	W L L L L
Biggest win	6–0 at Pflugerville FC STXCL Green	1–0 at TC Premier SC STXCL
Worst loss	1–5 at Lonestar SAT STXCL II	0–9 at LTFC STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.72	-2.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.39	+1.21

Common opponents: Lonestar SAT STXCL II — we 1–5; they 0–8. Lonestar ATX STXCL White — we 1–2; they 0–4. TC Premier SC STXCL — we 0–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold concede 5.2/game; worst result 0–9 at LTFC STXCL.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at TC Premier SC STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 06:30 PM at Town & Country.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX STXCL Red – Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.20 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Win 2.20 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Loss 1.90 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

12% top 4

89% below the top 4

5.4 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 2%
4th 9%
5th 38%
6th 44%
7th 7%
8th <1%
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lonestar SAT STXCL II	3.00 (+0.89)	1st (2.62)	20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Westlake North STXCL	3.00 (+0.89)	2nd (2.54)	20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	LTFC STXCL	2.57 (+0.46)	3rd (2.46)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Lonestar ATX STXCL White	2.57 (+0.46)	4th (2.19)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
5	Lions FC STXCL RED	2.40 (+0.29)	5th (1.94)	13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection

How the results connect

22 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX STXCL Red to Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us

2 favour them

+4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.62 · 3rd hardest of 14

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Oct 30 06:30 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 10th · 1-0-4 · GD -25	Away Town & Country	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.73	2.17	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	FC Westlake North STXCL 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +13	Home Town & Country	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.89	2.06	Upside
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	LTFC STXCL 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +26	Home Bee Creek Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.76	1.95	Upside
Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM	Lions FC STXCL RED 5th · 4-0-1 · GD +10	Home Westcreek	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.52	1.92	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar SAT STXCL II

+27

3.00

WWWWW

-0.62

+0.11

100%

1.7

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	4–0
W	Thu Sep 24	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	8–0
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Wed Nov 11 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	1–0	48%
·	Wed Nov 11	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	3–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	7–0	100%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake North STXCL

+13

3.00

WWWWW

-0.01

-0.22

97%

2.3

W	Mon Oct 19	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	1–0

Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar SAT STXCL II · Sat Oct 31 vs Lions FC STXCL RED See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	5–0	99%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	4–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC STXCL

+26

2.57

WLWWW

-0.30

-0.06

97%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	5–1
W	Fri Oct 2	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	9–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Boerne SC STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Pflugerville FC STXCL Green See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL White

+16

2.57

WLWWW

-0.88

+0.73

72%

4.1

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	4–1
L	Fri Oct 2	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–2
W	Fri Sep 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	3–0
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lions FC STXCL RED See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lions FC STXCL RED

+10

2.40

WWLWW

-0.72

+0.30

22%

5.3

W	Thu Oct 8	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	5–0
L	Thu Sep 24	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake North STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	2–0	81%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL Red

+10

2.11

WWDWW

-0.39

+0.62

12%

5.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	0–0
W	Fri Sep 25	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	3–0
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	1–5

Next: Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs LTFC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Central STXCL

1.29

WLLWL

-0.04

-0.10

6.9

L	Mon Oct 19	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	7–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL II · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Oct 31 vs Boerne SC STXCL Red See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC STXCL Red

1.29

WLWLL

-0.62

+0.73

8.6

L	Fri Oct 23	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–1
L	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	5–0
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

-16

0.88

WLWLL

+0.16

+0.03

10.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–5
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lions FC STXCL RED · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-25

0.60

LLLLW

+1.21

-0.50

12.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–5
L	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Boerne SC STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL Red See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	1–3	10%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	1–2	25%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–4	0%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

-11

0.57

LLDLW

+0.19

-0.20

11.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Nov 8 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–0	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT STXCL I

-12

0.57

DLLLW

+0.78

-0.81

9.1

W	Fri Oct 23	at	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–4
L	Thu Oct 8	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Pflugerville FC STXCL Green · Sun Nov 8 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	1–1	51%
·	Wed Nov 11	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-13

0.00

LLLLL

+1.13

-0.82

11.9

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–4
L	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lions FC STXCL RED · Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	0–0	33%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Pflugerville FC STXCL Green (14th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pflugerville FC STXCL Green

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.36

+0.16

13.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (7th)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake STXCL (9th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lions FC STXCL RED (5th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC STXCL Red (8th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL Red (6th)	0–6

Next: Fri Oct 23 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar SAT STXCL I · Sat Nov 7 at TC Premier SC STXCL See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (2nd)	0–5	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL I (12th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (11th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	LTFC STXCL (3rd)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL II (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (10th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.