Empire Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southern Cal GU18/19 · 13 teams · Empire Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.8 against · 2.34 expected points)
| Season so far | Empire Surf | Beach Futbol Club Black |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 0-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W | L D L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at San Diego Surf | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Legends FC - Del Mar | 0–5 vs Legends FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.97 | -1.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.22 | +0.78 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Beach Futbol Club Black average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Legends FC sit 4th on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.25.A point moves us above Legends FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Empire Surf – Beach Futbol Club Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 5th— holds | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 6%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA | 3.00 (+0.75) | 2nd (2.13) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 2 | LAFC | 2.50 (+0.25) | 3rd (2.10) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 3 | Rebels SC | 2.50 (+0.25) | 4th (1.95) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 4 | Legends FC | 2.33 (+0.08) | 1st (2.19) | A point next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Empire Surf to Beach Futbol Club Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.53 · 1st hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Beach Futbol Club Black 11th · 0-1-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.34 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Legends FC 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home Galway Downs |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 2.09 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
Pateadores NB 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home Galway Downs |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 2.10 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Slammers FC HB Koge 10th · 0-3-1 · GD -3 |
Home Galway Downs |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
1–0 | 2.18 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Sporting California USA 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 2.01 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
SLAMMERS FC 6th · 1-1-0 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.97 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 09:00 AM |
LAFC 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home Galway Downs |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.37 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 05:30 PM |
Rebels SC 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.38 | 1.87 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.83 | +0.21 | 82% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Nov 14 at SLAMMERS FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LAFC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 10 | 2.50 | WDWW | -1.29 | +0.49 | 80% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Blues · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rebels SC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -0.34 | +0.13 | 63% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Diego Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Legends FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -1.25 | +0.25 | 88% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Empire Surf | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -1.22 | +0.53 | 52% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores NB See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SLAMMERS FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.42 | +0.10 | 17% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores NB See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pateadores NB | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.65 | +0.15 | 7% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Blues | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.30 | +0.06 | 8% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +1.06 | -0.25 | 1% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Slammers FC HB Koge See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | DDLD | +0.67 | -0.25 | 1% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores NB · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +0.78 | -0.10 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | San Diego Surf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 19 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.15 | -0.22 | 0% | 12.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Pateadores NB · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LV Heat Surf | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 24 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.81 | -0.20 | 0% | 12.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 21 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sun Nov 22 at San Diego Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.