Blues
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southern Cal GU16 · 12 teams · So Cal Blues (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.5 against · 1.62 expected points)
| Season so far | Blues | LAFC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-1 | 1-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L | D L W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at Rebels SC | 2–0 vs Legends FC - Del Mar |
| Worst loss | 2–5 at Empire Surf | 0–1 vs SLAMMERS FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.30 | +0.06 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.30 | -0.56 |
Game plan
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Hard to break down
LAFC concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 22% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Sporting California USA sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.50.A win moves us above Sporting California USA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LAFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Blues – LAFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.33 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 17%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 14%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 7%
- 10th 2%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Empire Surf | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.49) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 3.00 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.21) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 3 | SLAMMERS FC | 3.00 (+1.50) | 3rd (1.91) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 4 | Pateadores NB | 2.00 (+0.50) | 7th (1.50) | Win next game |
| 5 | Sporting California USA | 2.00 (+0.50) | 5th (1.54) | Win next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Blues to LAFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.06 · 11th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM |
LAFC 8th · 1-1-1 · GD +1 |
Home OC Great Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Beach Futbol Club Black 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Redondo Union High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.71 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Legends FC 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home OC Great Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:30 PM |
Pateadores NB 4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1 |
Away Arroyo Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–2 | 1.32 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Legends FC - Del Mar 11th · 0-1-2 · GD -9 |
Home OC Great Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.50 | 1.51 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
SLAMMERS FC 3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Slammers FC HB Koge 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.09 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
San Diego Surf 10th · 0-2-3 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.57 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Sporting California USA 5th · 1-1-0 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 1.54 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Empire Surf | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.69 | +0.02 | 99% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores NB See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.57 | +0.14 | 94% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SLAMMERS FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.38 | +0.08 | 73% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores NB · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting California USA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pateadores NB | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -0.39 | +0.11 | 28% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting California USA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -0.23 | +0.08 | 30% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Nov 14 at SLAMMERS FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Blues | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | +0.30 | -0.06 | 33% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Legends FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | WDL | -0.07 | +0.05 | 29% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Empire Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | LAFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -0.56 | +0.26 | 12% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Blues · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.06 | +0.14 | 1% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores NB · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | San Diego Surf | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 | 0.40 | LDDLL | +0.67 | -0.32 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC · Sat Apr 10 vs Slammers FC HB Koge See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +0.36 | +0.14 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Slammers FC HB Koge See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Rebels SC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 1 | 0.25 | LDLL | -0.16 | +0.36 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Diego Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.