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Atlanta Fire United

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU18/19 · 9 teams · Atlanta Fire United (all teams)

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2nd
6-1-2 record · 9 played
2.11 points per game
+8 goal diff · 16–8
WWDWWlast 5
92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9
-0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:00 PM

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Atlanta Fire United
2nd · 2.11 PPG
at
United Futbol Academy
3rd · 2.11 PPG

Fowler Park, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.1 against · 1.41 expected points)

Season so farAtlanta Fire UnitedUnited Futbol Academy
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)6-1-26-1-2
Points per game2.112.11
Goals for / game1.81.3
Goals against / game0.90.8
Clean sheets56
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W D W WL D W L W
Biggest win3–0 at Charlotte SA Gold4–1 vs Alabama FC
Worst loss2–4 at Concorde Fire Platinum1–4 vs South Carolina United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.59+0.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.21-0.22

Common opponents: GSA — we 1–0, 3–1; they 1–0, 1–2. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 2–4, 1–0; they 1–0, 0–0. Concorde Fire Premier — we 0–1; they 1–0. Alabama FC — we 2–0; they 4–1. Charlotte SA Gold — we 3–0; they 2–0. CESA Liberty — we 2–0; they 1–0. South Carolina United — we 2–2; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Concorde Fire Premier.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 37%; a draw (29%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:00 PM at Fowler Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atlanta Fire United – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.20 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
1.90 PPG		 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
92% top 4
8% below the top 4
2.9 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 40%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Concorde Fire Premier 2.38 (+0.27) 1st (2.35) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

69 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Atlanta Fire United to United Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

36 favour us
12 even
21 favour them
+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 1–0 0–1 0–0 3–1 2–0 0–1 3–0 0–2 2–0 1–4 0–1 0–1 2–4 2–1 2–2 4–1 Atlanta Fire United 2nd Concorde Fire Plati… 6th GSA 8th CESA Liberty 7th Charlotte SA Gold 9th Alabama FC 5th Concorde Fire Premi… 1st South Carolina Unit… 4th United Futbol Acade… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 5th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:00 PM		 United Futbol Academy
3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +5		 Away
Fowler Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.41 2.04 Upside
Sat Oct 31
04:00 PM		 Concorde Fire Premier
1st · 6-1-1 · GD +14		 Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park 		●●●●● Very tough
18%		 0–1 0.78 1.93 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Alabama FC
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.57 1.90 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM		 United Futbol Academy
3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +5		 Home
Notre Dame Academy · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–0 1.63 1.88 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 CESA Liberty
7th · 2-2-7 · GD -12		 Away far trip
Wenwood		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 1–0 2.23 1.90 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 South Carolina United
4th · 6-3-2 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.36 1.86 Upside
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM		 Charlotte SA Gold
9th · 0-1-6 · GD -12		 Home
Scott Hudgens Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 2–0 2.58 1.91 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Concorde Fire Premier 8611 173+14 192.38 LWWWD -0.10 -0.24 100% 1.1
2 Atlanta Fire United 9612 168+8 192.11 WWDWW -0.21 +0.08 92% 2.9
3 United Futbol Academy 9612 127+5 192.11 WLWDL -0.22 +0.16 81% 3.5
4 South Carolina United 11632 1912+7 211.91 WDWLD -0.01 -0.16 91% 3.1
5 Alabama FC 8404 1512+3 121.50 LWWWW -0.25 +0.16 21% 5.1
6 Concorde Fire Platinum 7223 78-1 81.14 WDLDL +0.39 -0.31 15% 5.4
7 CESA Liberty 11227 618-12 80.73 LLLLL +0.12 +0.09 0% 7.5
8 GSA 8116 517-12 40.50 DLLLW +0.37 -0.15 0% 7.5
9 Charlotte SA Gold 7016 214-12 10.14 LLLLL +0.07 +0.20 0% 8.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.