CESA Liberty

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU18/19 · 9 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)

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7th

2-2-7 record · 11 played

0.73 points per game

-12 goal diff · 6–18

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.6

+0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 02:00 PM

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CESA Liberty
7th · 0.73 PPG

Concorde Fire Platinum
6th · 1.14 PPG

Georgia Sports Park , field 3 ↗ far trip

15% 26% 59%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.6 for, 1.5 against · 0.71 expected points)

Season so far	CESA Liberty	Concorde Fire Platinum
Position	7th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-7	2-2-3
Points per game	0.73	1.14
Goals for / game	0.5	1.0
Goals against / game	1.6	1.1
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	8	3
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	L D L D W
Biggest win	3–2 vs Alabama FC	4–2 vs Atlanta Fire United
Worst loss	0–3 at Concorde Fire Premier	1–3 at Concorde Fire Premier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.82	+0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.12	+0.39

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 0–1 vs Concorde Fire Platinum (L)

Common opponents: Concorde Fire Premier — we 0–2, 0–3; they 1–3. Atlanta Fire United — we 0–2; they 4–2, 0–1. United Futbol Academy — we 0–1; they 0–1, 0–0. South Carolina United — we 1–3; they 1–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 8 time(s): 0–2 vs Concorde Fire Premier, 0–0 at Charlotte SA Gold, 0–1 vs Concorde Fire Platinum, 0–0 vs GSA, 0–2 at Atlanta Fire United, 0–1 at United Futbol Academy, 0–3 at Concorde Fire Premier, 0–3 at Alabama FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 15%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Georgia Sports Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Concorde Fire Platinum game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Liberty – Concorde Fire Platinum) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.67 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Win 0.92 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Draw 0.75 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Loss 0.67 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

7.6 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th 1%
7th 44%
8th 52%
9th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.44 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Concorde Fire Premier	2.38 (+1.65)	1st (2.35)	31 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Atlanta Fire United	2.11 (+1.38)	2nd (1.91)	26 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	United Futbol Academy	2.11 (+1.38)	4th (1.82)	26 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	South Carolina United	1.91 (+1.18)	3rd (1.87)	23 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Alabama FC	1.50 (+0.77)	5th (1.46)	16 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Concorde Fire Platinum	1.14 (+0.41)	6th (1.41)	11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

64 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link CESA Liberty to Concorde Fire Platinum through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

10 even

48 favour them

-1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 4th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	Concorde Fire Platinum 6th · 2-2-3 · GD -1	Away far trip Georgia Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.71	0.73	Upside
Sun Nov 1 TBD	GSA 8th · 1-1-6 · GD -12	Away	●●●●○ Tough	30%	0–1	1.20	0.76	Upside
Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM	Atlanta Fire United 2nd · 6-1-2 · GD +8	Home Wenwood	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–1	0.56	0.75	Upside
Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM	United Futbol Academy 3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +5	Home Wenwood	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.71	0.74	Upside
Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM	South Carolina United 4th · 6-3-2 · GD +7	Home Mesa Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	13%	0–1	0.61	0.74	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Concorde Fire Premier

+14

2.38

LWWWD

-0.10

-0.24

100%

1.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	South Carolina United (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	CESA Liberty (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	GSA (8th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	South Carolina United (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	CESA Liberty (7th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Alabama FC (5th)	2–0	63%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	GSA (8th)	2–0	82%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	2–0	85%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	2–0	89%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Alabama FC (5th)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlanta Fire United

2.11

WWDWW

-0.21

+0.08

92%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	GSA (8th)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	South Carolina United (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	CESA Liberty (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Alabama FC (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	2–4
W	Sat Aug 22	at	GSA (8th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 1 at Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Alabama FC (5th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	CESA Liberty (7th)	1–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	South Carolina United (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	2–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United Futbol Academy

2.11

WLWDL

-0.22

+0.16

83%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	GSA (8th)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	CESA Liberty (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	South Carolina United (4th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alabama FC (5th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	GSA (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 at Alabama FC · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Alabama FC (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	South Carolina United (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	CESA Liberty (7th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	1–0	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina United

1.91

WDWLD

-0.01

-0.16

91%

3.1

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Alabama FC (5th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	CESA Liberty (7th)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	GSA (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Alabama FC (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at GSA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 14 vs United Futbol Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	GSA (8th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	CESA Liberty (7th)	1–0	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC

1.50

LWWWW

-0.25

+0.16

21%

5.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	CESA Liberty (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	South Carolina United (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	GSA (8th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 23	at	CESA Liberty (7th)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	South Carolina United (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	GSA (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Concorde Fire Platinum

-1

1.14

WDLDL

+0.39

-0.31

13%

5.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 13	at	South Carolina United (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	CESA Liberty (7th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	4–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CESA Liberty (7th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	South Carolina United (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Alabama FC (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	GSA (8th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	GSA (8th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	1–0	67%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Alabama FC (5th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CESA Liberty

-12

0.73

LLLLL

+0.12

+0.09

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Alabama FC (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	South Carolina United (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	GSA (8th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Alabama FC (5th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 1 at GSA · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GSA (8th)	0–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	0–1	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	South Carolina United (4th)	0–1	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GSA

-12

0.50

DLLLW

+0.37

-0.15

7.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC (5th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 13	at	CESA Liberty (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	South Carolina United (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 1 vs CESA Liberty See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	1–0	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	South Carolina United (4th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	CESA Liberty (7th)	1–0	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Alabama FC (5th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Charlotte SA Gold (9th)	1–0	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA Gold

-12

0.14

LLLLL

+0.07

+0.20

8.9

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	South Carolina United (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	CESA Liberty (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	South Carolina United (4th)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	CESA Liberty (7th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GSA (8th)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–2	3%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Concorde Fire Premier (1st)	0–2	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–1	7%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Atlanta Fire United (2nd)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (6th)	0–1	10%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	GSA (8th)	0–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.