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Alabama FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU18/19 · 9 teams · Alabama FC (all teams)

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5th
4-0-4 record · 8 played
1.50 points per game
+3 goal diff · 15–12
LWWWWlast 5
20% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM

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Alabama FC
5th · 1.50 PPG
vs
United Futbol Academy
3rd · 2.11 PPG

Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF), Field # 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.4 against · 1.38 expected points)

Season so farAlabama FCUnited Futbol Academy
Position5th3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-0-46-1-2
Points per game1.502.11
Goals for / game1.91.3
Goals against / game1.50.8
Clean sheets36
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W W LL D W L W
Biggest win3–0 at Charlotte SA Gold4–1 vs Alabama FC
Worst loss1–4 at United Futbol Academy1–4 vs South Carolina United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.24+0.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.25-0.22

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–4 at United Futbol Academy (L)

Common opponents: South Carolina United — we 1–2, 2–0; they 1–4. CESA Liberty — we 2–3, 3–0; they 1–0. GSA — we 3–1; they 1–0, 1–2. Charlotte SA Gold — we 3–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Atlanta Fire United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 37%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.44 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
1.67 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.44 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.33 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
20% top 4
80% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 36%
  6. 6th 43%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Concorde Fire Premier 2.38 (+0.88) 1st (2.35) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Atlanta Fire United 2.11 (+0.61) 2nd (1.91) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
3 United Futbol Academy 2.11 (+0.61) 4th (1.82) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
4 South Carolina United 1.91 (+0.41) 3rd (1.87) 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection

How the results connect

63 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Alabama FC to United Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

30 favour us
6 even
27 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 3–0 0–2 3–1 0–1 3–0 0–1 2–3 1–2 4–1 2–1 2–0 0–2 0–1 1–2 0–2 1–0 0–0 Alabama FC 5th Charlotte SA Gold 9th GSA 8th CESA Liberty 7th South Carolina Unit… 4th Atlanta Fire United 2nd Concorde Fire Premi… 1st United Futbol Acade… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 3rd hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Concorde Fire Premier
1st · 6-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
Rathmell Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 0–2 0.69 1.41 Upside
Sat Oct 31
03:00 PM		 United Futbol Academy
3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +5		 Home
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.38 1.41 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Atlanta Fire United
2nd · 6-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.20 1.39 Upside
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM		 Concorde Fire Platinum
6th · 2-2-3 · GD -1		 Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park 		●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.39 1.39 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 GSA
8th · 1-1-6 · GD -12		 Away far trip
GSA South		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.12 1.44 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 Charlotte SA Gold
9th · 0-1-6 · GD -12		 Home
Veterans Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 2–0 2.51 1.52 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
12:00 PM		 Concorde Fire Premier
1st · 6-1-1 · GD +14		 Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park 		●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–2 0.52 1.45 Upside
Sat Jan 16
01:00 PM		 Concorde Fire Platinum
6th · 2-2-3 · GD -1		 Home
Veterans Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.64 1.46 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Concorde Fire Premier 8611 173+14 192.38 LWWWD -0.10 -0.24 100% 1.1
2 Atlanta Fire United 9612 168+8 192.11 WWDWW -0.21 +0.08 92% 2.9
3 United Futbol Academy 9612 127+5 192.11 WLWDL -0.22 +0.16 81% 3.5
4 South Carolina United 11632 1912+7 211.91 WDWLD -0.01 -0.16 91% 3.1
5 Alabama FC 8404 1512+3 121.50 LWWWW -0.25 +0.16 20% 5.2
6 Concorde Fire Platinum 7223 78-1 81.14 WDLDL +0.39 -0.31 15% 5.4
7 CESA Liberty 11227 618-12 80.73 LLLLL +0.12 +0.09 0% 7.5
8 GSA 8116 517-12 40.50 DLLLW +0.37 -0.15 0% 7.6
9 Charlotte SA Gold 7016 214-12 10.14 LLLLL +0.07 +0.20 0% 8.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.