Atlanta Fire United
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU14 · 9 teams · Atlanta Fire United (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.5 against · 0.79 expected points)
| Season so far | Atlanta Fire United | United Futbol Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 2-2-1 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.60 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W | W D L W D |
| Biggest win | 4–2 vs Alabama FC | 3–0 vs GSA |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs GSA | 0–2 at Charlotte SA Gold |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.64 | +0.26 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.03 | +0.18 |
Common opponents: Alabama FC — we 4–2; they 4–4. Charlotte SA Gold — we 0–1; they 0–2. GSA — we 1–5; they 3–0. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 1–2; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Charlotte SA Gold.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Fowler Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
CESA Liberty sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above CESA Liberty on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atlanta Fire United – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.60 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 15%
- 8th 26%
- 9th 42%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina United | 2.00 (+1.25) | 3rd (1.72) | 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.75 (+1.00) | 2nd (1.73) | 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 1.60 (+0.85) | 4th (1.58) | 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 1.50 (+0.75) | 1st (1.76) | 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | GSA | 1.50 (+0.75) | 5th (1.41) | 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 6 | Charlotte SA Gold | 1.50 (+0.75) | 6th (1.29) | 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 7 | Alabama FC | 1.00 (+0.25) | 7th (1.17) | A point next game |
| 8 | CESA Liberty | 1.00 (+0.25) | 8th (1.00) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Atlanta Fire United to United Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.11 · 2nd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 01:00 PM no score posted |
Concorde Fire Premier 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +6 |
Home Pinecrest Academy · grass |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
2–3 | 0.79 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 3 01:00 PM no score posted |
CESA Liberty 8th · 1-2-2 · GD -7 |
Home Pinecrest Academy · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.62 | 0.90 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 4 11:00 AM no score posted |
South Carolina United 1st · 3-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home Notre Dame Academy · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +2 |
Away Fowler Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM |
CESA Liberty 8th · 1-2-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Wenwood |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–2 | 1.32 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
South Carolina United 1st · 3-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Fri Mar 5 TBD |
GSA 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.17 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 2nd · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.71 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.04 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 04:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
2–4 | 0.53 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Alabama FC 7th · 1-2-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
Charlotte SA Gold 6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Notre Dame Academy · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–2 | 1.30 | 0.94 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | South Carolina United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | WLDWW | +0.07 | -0.08 | 80% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 4 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 14 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 | 1.75 | LWDW | -0.21 | +0.01 | 81% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 8 | 1.60 | DWLDW | +0.18 | -0.12 | 68% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 4 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | -0.12 | -0.10 | 86% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at GSA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | GSA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | -0.21 | +0.07 | 39% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Charlotte SA Gold | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.08 | +0.02 | 23% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sat Nov 14 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Alabama FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 5 | 1.00 | DLWLD | -0.22 | +0.14 | 14% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 8 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | CESA Liberty | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 | 1.00 | WLDLD | +0.28 | +0.02 | 4% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 4 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.03 | +0.11 | 4% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 3 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 4 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.