Concorde Fire Premier
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU14 · 9 teams · Concorde Fire (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM
GSA South, #5 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.8 for, 2.4 against · 1.60 expected points)
| Season so far | Concorde Fire Premier | GSA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-2 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L | L W W L |
| Biggest win | 8–1 vs CESA Liberty | 5–1 at Atlanta Fire United |
| Worst loss | 2–4 vs South Carolina United | 0–3 at United Futbol Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.84 | +0.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | -0.21 |
Common opponents: United Futbol Academy — we 1–2; they 0–3. CESA Liberty — we 8–1; they 1–0. South Carolina United — we 2–4; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at GSA South.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
United Futbol Academy sit 3rd on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above United Futbol Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the GSA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Premier – GSA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.40 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.80 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.40 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.20 PPG |
6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 32%
- 2nd 23%
- 3rd 18%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 2%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina United | 2.00 (+0.50) | 3rd (1.72) | 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.75 (+0.25) | 2nd (1.73) | A point next game |
| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 1.60 (+0.10) | 4th (1.58) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Concorde Fire Premier to GSA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 01:00 PM no score posted |
Atlanta Fire United 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Pinecrest Academy · grass |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–2 | 2.06 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 10 01:00 PM no score posted |
Alabama FC 7th · 1-2-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Rathmell Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–2 | 1.77 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
GSA 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
GSA South |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.60 | 1.63 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 2nd · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.29 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
Charlotte SA Gold 6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–2 | 2.12 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Fri Mar 5 02:30 PM |
CESA Liberty 8th · 1-2-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–2 | 2.14 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 09:00 AM |
South Carolina United 1st · 3-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.40 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 04:00 PM |
GSA 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
3–2 | 1.93 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 2nd · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.61 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 02:00 PM |
Alabama FC 7th · 1-2-2 · GD -1 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
4–2 | 2.12 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 04:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
4–2 | 2.36 | 1.76 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 04:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +2 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–2 | 1.78 | 1.76 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | South Carolina United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | WLDWW | +0.07 | -0.08 | 83% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 4 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 14 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 | 1.75 | LWDW | -0.21 | +0.01 | 82% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 8 | 1.60 | DWLDW | +0.18 | -0.12 | 67% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 4 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | -0.12 | -0.10 | 85% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at GSA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | GSA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | -0.21 | +0.07 | 39% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Charlotte SA Gold | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.08 | +0.02 | 24% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sat Nov 14 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Alabama FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 5 | 1.00 | DLWLD | -0.22 | +0.14 | 14% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 8 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | CESA Liberty | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 | 1.00 | WLDLD | +0.28 | +0.02 | 4% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 4 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.03 | +0.11 | 3% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 3 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 4 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.