Atlanta Fire United
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU13 · 9 teams · Atlanta Fire United (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.3 against · 0.30 expected points)
| Season so far | Atlanta Fire United | United Futbol Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-2 | 3-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W L | L W W W L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at Charlotte SA Gold | 5–1 vs Concorde Fire Premier |
| Worst loss | 0–9 vs GSA | 0–2 vs Alabama FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.34 | +0.55 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.59 | +0.38 |
Common opponents: Alabama FC — we 0–2; they 0–2. Charlotte SA Gold — we 2–1; they 2–1. GSA — we 0–9; they 1–2. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 0–0; they 3–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
United Futbol Academy score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs Alabama FC, 0–9 vs GSA, 0–0 vs Concorde Fire Platinum.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Fowler Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Concorde Fire Platinum sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Concorde Fire Platinum on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atlanta Fire United – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.80 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.40 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.80 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 5%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 22%
- 8th 33%
- 9th 27%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GSA | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.64) | 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Alabama FC | 2.60 (+1.60) | 2nd (2.26) | 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 1.80 (+0.80) | 3rd (1.83) | 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 1.50 (+0.50) | 5th (1.17) | 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 5 | CESA Liberty | 1.40 (+0.40) | 4th (1.50) | Win next game |
| 6 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.05) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Atlanta Fire United to United Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 4th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 09:00 AM no score posted |
Concorde Fire Premier 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home Pinecrest Academy · grass |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 3 11:00 AM no score posted |
CESA Liberty 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Pinecrest Academy · grass |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.68 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 4 09:00 AM no score posted |
South Carolina United 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -9 |
Home Notre Dame Academy · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away Fowler Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.30 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
CESA Liberty 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Wenwood |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.50 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
South Carolina United 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Fri Mar 5 TBD |
GSA 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 10:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
0–1 | 0.83 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–2 | 0.44 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Alabama FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–2 | 0.20 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 8th · 0-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home Notre Dame Academy · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.05 | 0.78 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GSA | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | +16 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.42 | -0.23 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alabama FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.44 | +0.01 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 8 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWWL | +0.38 | -0.26 | 98% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 4 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.25 | +0.17 | 14% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at GSA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | CESA Liberty | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WLDWL | +0.19 | -0.12 | 77% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 4 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | -0.43 | +0.21 | 8% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.59 | +0.03 | 1% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 3 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 4 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Charlotte SA Gold | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 | 0.25 | LLLD | -0.08 | +0.10 | 2% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sat Nov 14 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 | 0.20 | LLDLL | +0.41 | -0.03 | 0% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 4 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 14 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.