CESA Liberty
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU13 · 9 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.5 for, 0.9 against · 2.34 expected points)
| Season so far | CESA Liberty | Atlanta Fire United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-2 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D L W | D L W L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at Concorde Fire Premier | 2–1 at Charlotte SA Gold |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs GSA | 0–9 vs GSA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.07 | -1.34 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.19 | +0.59 |
Common opponents: Concorde Fire Platinum — we 2–0; they 0–0. GSA — we 0–3; they 0–9. Alabama FC — we 0–2; they 0–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Atlanta Fire United average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 3 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Atlanta Fire United concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–9 vs GSA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs GSA, 0–2 at Alabama FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Concorde Fire Premier sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.A point moves us above Concorde Fire Premier on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Atlanta Fire United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Liberty – Atlanta Fire United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.67 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.17 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 58%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 2%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GSA | 3.00 (+1.60) | 1st (2.64) | 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Alabama FC | 2.60 (+1.20) | 2nd (2.26) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 1.80 (+0.40) | 3rd (1.83) | 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 1.50 (+0.10) | 5th (1.17) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link CESA Liberty to Atlanta Fire United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.12 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 3 11:00 AM no score posted |
Atlanta Fire United 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Pinecrest Academy · grass |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 4 09:00 AM no score posted |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Fowler Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -10 |
Home Wenwood |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.34 | 1.56 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home Wenwood |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Fri Mar 5 01:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 09:00 AM |
Alabama FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +9 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–1 | 0.76 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 8th · 0-1-3 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Harris Teeter Fields at Palisades |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 8th · 0-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–0 | 1.85 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
South Carolina United 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -9 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
1–0 | 2.19 | 1.57 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
GSA 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.30 | 1.50 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GSA | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | +16 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.42 | -0.23 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Alabama FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alabama FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.44 | +0.01 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 8 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWWL | +0.38 | -0.26 | 97% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 4 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.25 | +0.17 | 15% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at GSA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | CESA Liberty | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WLDWL | +0.19 | -0.12 | 76% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 4 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | -0.43 | +0.21 | 9% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.59 | +0.03 | 1% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 3 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 4 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Charlotte SA Gold | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 | 0.25 | LLLD | -0.08 | +0.10 | 2% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sat Nov 14 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 | 0.20 | LLDLL | +0.41 | -0.03 | 0% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 4 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 14 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.