New England Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU14 · 8 teams · New England Surf (all teams)

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6th

1-1-3 record · 5 played

0.80 points per game

-7 goal diff · 7–14

LDWLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0

+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:45 AM

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New England Surf
6th · 0.80 PPG

Keystone Athletic
1st · 2.50 PPG

Charles Chrin Community Center, Field 1 ↗ far trip

7% 11% 82%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 1.0 for, 3.3 against · 0.33 expected points)

Season so far	New England Surf	Keystone Athletic
Position	6th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-3	3-1-0
Points per game	0.80	2.50
Goals for / game	1.4	3.0
Goals against / game	2.8	0.5
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	L L W D L	D W W W
Biggest win	2–0 at Quickstrike FC	4–0 vs Reading Rage Surf
Worst loss	2–9 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.87	+1.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.17	-0.78

Common opponents: East Coast Surf — we 1–1; they 1–1. Quickstrike FC — we 2–0; they 3–0. YMS — we 1–2; they 4–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Keystone Athletic score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Keystone Athletic concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 08:45 AM at Charles Chrin Community Center.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:45 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Keystone Athletic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (New England Surf – Keystone Athletic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.67 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	8th▼ down 2
Win 1.17 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	7th▼ down 1
Draw 0.83 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	8th▼ down 2
Loss 0.67 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

6.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th 33%
6th 34%
7th 30%
8th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Keystone Athletic	2.50 (+1.70)	3rd (2.10)	31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
2	Albany Alleycats	2.40 (+1.60)	2nd (2.12)	30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3	PDA SOUTH BLUE	2.25 (+1.45)	1st (2.28)	28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	East Coast Surf	2.00 (+1.20)	4th (1.86)	24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
5	Reading Rage Surf	1.20 (+0.40)	5th (1.00)	13 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link New England Surf to Keystone Athletic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

1 even

9 favour them

-2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 2nd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 08:45 AM	Keystone Athletic 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +10	Away far trip Charles Chrin Community Center	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.33	0.72	Upside
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Reading Rage Surf 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -8	Away far trip Penn State Berks	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.36	0.81	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Albany Alleycats 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Away	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–3	0.36	0.76	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	East Coast Surf 4th · 2-2-0 · GD +4	Home	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.74	0.76	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Quickstrike FC 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -13	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.14	0.89	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 02:30 PM	YMS 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -10	Away far trip Macclesfield Park · turf	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.40	0.94	Upside
Sun Apr 18 10:45 AM	PDA SOUTH BLUE 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +15	Away far trip Westampton Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	4%	1–4	0.17	0.88	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Keystone Athletic 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +10	Home	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–2	0.49	0.85	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Reading Rage Surf 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -8	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.64	0.90	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Keystone Athletic

+10

2.50

WWWD

-0.78

+0.12

100%

2.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	YMS (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs New England Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats · Sat Nov 7 at PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	New England Surf (6th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	YMS (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	New England Surf (6th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albany Alleycats

2.40

WWLWW

-0.18

-0.07

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	YMS (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	New England Surf (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Mar 21 vs New England Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	New England Surf (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	YMS (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SOUTH BLUE

+15

2.25

WWLW

-0.40

-0.19

100%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	New England Surf (6th)	9–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	YMS (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	YMS (7th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	3–1	84%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	New England Surf (6th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Coast Surf

2.00

DWWD

+0.11

-0.13

98%

3.4

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	New England Surf (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs YMS · Sun Oct 25 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Nov 1 at Quickstrike FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	YMS (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	New England Surf (6th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	YMS (7th)	2–0	65%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Reading Rage Surf

-8

1.20

LLWLW

+0.11

+0.14

5.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	YMS (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albany Alleycats · Sun Oct 25 vs New England Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	New England Surf (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	YMS (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	New England Surf (6th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

New England Surf

-7

0.80

LDWLL

+0.17

+0.14

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	2–9
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	YMS (7th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Mar 21 at Albany Alleycats See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS

-10

0.60

LLLWL

+0.46

-0.00

6.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	New England Surf (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Mar 21 at PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	New England Surf (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Quickstrike FC

-13

0.00

LLLL

+0.11

+0.35

7.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	New England Surf (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs YMS · Sun Nov 1 vs East Coast Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	YMS (7th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	New England Surf (6th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	YMS (7th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.