Keystone Athletic

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU14 · 8 teams · Keystone Athletic (all teams)

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1st

3-1-0 record · 4 played

2.50 points per game

+10 goal diff · 12–2

WWWDlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4

-0.78 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:45 AM

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Keystone Athletic
1st · 2.50 PPG

New England Surf
6th · 0.80 PPG

Charles Chrin Community Center, Field 1 ↗

82% 11%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.0 against · 2.56 expected points)

Season so far	Keystone Athletic	New England Surf
Position	1st	6th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-0	1-1-3
Points per game	2.50	0.80
Goals for / game	3.0	1.4
Goals against / game	0.5	2.8
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	D W W W	L L W D L
Biggest win	4–0 vs Reading Rage Surf	2–0 at Quickstrike FC
Worst loss	—	2–9 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.16	-0.87
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.78	+0.17

Common opponents: YMS — we 4–1; they 1–2. Quickstrike FC — we 3–0; they 2–0. East Coast Surf — we 1–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:45 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the New England Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Keystone Athletic – New England Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.60 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.60 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.20 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	4th▼ down 3
Loss 2.00 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

22% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.4 average finish

1st 22%
2nd 30%
3rd 30%
4th 18%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Keystone Athletic to New England Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 08:45 AM	New England Surf 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -7	Home Charles Chrin Community Center	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–0	2.56	2.51	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 09:30 AM	Albany Alleycats 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Home Nazareth Middle School Turf · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.66	2.37	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM	PDA SOUTH BLUE 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +15	Away far trip Westampton Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.07	2.18	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Reading Rage Surf 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -8	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–0	2.36	2.21	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 02:30 PM	YMS 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -10	Away far trip Macclesfield Park · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.44	2.23	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 TBD	PDA SOUTH BLUE 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +15	Home	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.37	2.15	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Quickstrike FC 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -13	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.68	2.19	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 TBD	East Coast Surf 4th · 2-2-0 · GD +4	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	1–1	1.52	2.14	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	New England Surf 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -7	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–1	2.37	2.16	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Albany Alleycats 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Away	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.38	2.10	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Keystone Athletic

+10

2.50

WWWD

-0.78

+0.12

100%

2.4

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	YMS (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs New England Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats · Sat Nov 7 at PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	New England Surf (6th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	YMS (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	New England Surf (6th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albany Alleycats

2.40

WWLWW

-0.18

-0.07

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	YMS (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	New England Surf (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Mar 21 vs New England Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	New England Surf (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	YMS (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SOUTH BLUE

+15

2.25

WWLW

-0.40

-0.19

100%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	New England Surf (6th)	9–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	YMS (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	YMS (7th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	3–1	84%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	New England Surf (6th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Coast Surf

2.00

DWWD

+0.11

-0.13

98%

3.4

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	New England Surf (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs YMS · Sun Oct 25 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Nov 1 at Quickstrike FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	YMS (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	New England Surf (6th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	YMS (7th)	2–0	65%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Reading Rage Surf

-8

1.20

LLWLW

+0.11

+0.14

5.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	YMS (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albany Alleycats · Sun Oct 25 vs New England Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	New England Surf (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	YMS (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	New England Surf (6th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

New England Surf

-7

0.80

LDWLL

+0.17

+0.14

6.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	2–9
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	YMS (7th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Mar 21 at Albany Alleycats See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS

-10

0.60

LLLWL

+0.46

-0.00

6.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	New England Surf (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Mar 21 at PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Quickstrike FC (8th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	New England Surf (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Quickstrike FC (8th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Quickstrike FC

-13

0.00

LLLL

+0.11

+0.35

7.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	New England Surf (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs YMS · Sun Nov 1 vs East Coast Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	YMS (7th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	East Coast Surf (4th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Albany Alleycats (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	New England Surf (6th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Reading Rage Surf (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	YMS (7th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.