SOLAR RED NTX
ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU16 · 20 teams · Solar SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:50 AM
Dallas Soccer Park, Field 10 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.5 against · 1.34 expected points)
| Season so far | SOLAR RED NTX | DKSC NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 18th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-5 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals against / game | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D W L | L D L D L |
| Biggest win | 6–1 at DKSC WHITE NTX | 2–1 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX |
| Worst loss | 1–9 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX | 0–3 vs Dallas Texans NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.40 | -0.87 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.87 | -0.28 |
Common opponents: DKSC WHITE NTX — we 6–1; they 0–0. FRISCO FUSION NTX — we 0–0; they 0–1.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
DKSC NTX average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–7 at Tyler FC NTX, 0–0 at FRISCO FUSION NTX, 0–5 at NTX Celtic FC NTX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 37%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 09:50 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:50 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
-
What a win does
Sting Black NTX sit 15th on 0.88 PPG; we are on 0.88.A point moves us above Sting Black NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the DKSC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR RED NTX – DKSC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.89 PPG |
14th▲ up 2 | 15th▲ up 1 | 16th— holds |
| Win 1.11 PPG |
13th▲ up 3 | 13th▲ up 3 | 15th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.89 PPG |
14th▲ up 2 | 15th▲ up 1 | 16th— holds |
| Loss 0.78 PPG |
17th▼ down 1 | 17th▼ down 1 | 18th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 13th if every rival drops points, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 3%
- 12th 6%
- 13th 10%
- 14th 14%
- 15th 19%
- 16th 22%
- 17th 20%
- 18th 6%
- 19th
- 20th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler FC NTX | 3.00 (+2.12) | 1st (2.86) | 38 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 2.75 (+1.87) | 2nd (2.63) | 35 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 2.43 (+1.55) | 4th (2.18) | 30 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Sting Brave NTX | 2.25 (+1.37) | 3rd (2.22) | 27 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 2.25 (+1.37) | 5th (1.89) | 27 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 2.00 (+1.12) | 6th (1.81) | 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 1.67 (+0.79) | 9th (1.58) | 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 8 | Fever United FC NTX | 1.57 (+0.69) | 7th (1.65) | 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 9 | Texas Spurs NTX | 1.43 (+0.55) | 11th (1.36) | 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 10 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 1.40 (+0.52) | 8th (1.60) | 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 11 | Dallas Texans NTX | 1.33 (+0.45) | 14th (1.14) | 13 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 12 | Nido Dallas NTX | 1.13 (+0.25) | 12th (1.24) | 10 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 13 | FRISCO FUSION NTX | 1.00 (+0.12) | 10th (1.42) | A point next game |
| 14 | Sting Royal NTX | 0.88 (+0.00) | 13th (1.18) | Already ahead |
| 15 | Sting Black NTX | 0.88 (+0.00) | 16th (0.93) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
25 chains · 14 teams
Paths of results that link SOLAR RED NTX to DKSC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.54 · 20th hardest of 20
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 09:50 AM |
DKSC NTX 18th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 09:50 AM |
Fever United FC NTX 8th · 3-2-2 · GD +3 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 08:00 AM |
Dallas Texans Red NTX 10th · 2-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.64 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 08:00 AM |
Sting Black NTX 15th · 2-1-5 · GD -10 |
Home Railroad Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.40 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 09:50 AM |
Sting Brave NTX 4th · 6-0-2 · GD +26 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.08 | 0.86 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:50 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 20th · 0-0-8 · GD -49 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–1 | 2.80 | 1.00 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 11:40 AM |
Texas Spurs NTX 9th · 3-1-3 · GD -10 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.82 | 0.99 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler FC NTX | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 4 | +43 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.03 | -0.23 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sun Nov 8 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 2 | +29 | 22 | 2.75 | WWDWW | -0.24 | -0.38 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Texas Spurs NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 17 | 2.43 | DWDWW | +0.17 | +0.31 | 78% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Sting Brave NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Sting Brave NTX | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 6 | +26 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWW | -0.72 | +0.27 | 88% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sun Apr 4 at Dallas Texans Red NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWL | -0.23 | +0.42 | 17% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Tyler FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FRISCO FUSION NTX · Sun Nov 8 at DKSC WHITE NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 16 | 2.00 | LLWDW | -0.58 | +0.25 | 11% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Tyler FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | +0.17 | -0.09 | 2% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs FRISCO FUSION NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Fever United FC NTX · Thu Oct 29 at Texas Spurs NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Fever United FC NTX | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 | 1.57 | DWLLD | +0.23 | -0.53 | 2% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR RED NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Texas Spurs NTX | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 10 | 1.43 | LLWDW | +0.54 | -0.25 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Black NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | 1.40 | WLDLW | +0.59 | -0.30 | 3% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Black NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Dallas Texans NTX | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWWDL | -0.88 | +0.68 | 0% | 13.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fever United FC NTX · Thu Oct 29 at Sting Royal NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Nido Dallas NTX | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 | 1.13 | LWLLL | +0.29 | -0.29 | 0% | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Apr 4 at DKSC WHITE NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | FRISCO FUSION NTX | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 7 | 1.00 | WLDLL | +0.35 | -0.37 | 0% | 10.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sun Oct 25 at DKSC WHITE NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Sting Royal NTX | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 7 | 0.88 | DDDLL | -0.02 | +0.02 | 0% | 12.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sun Nov 8 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Apr 4 at FRISCO FUSION NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Sting Black NTX | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 | 0.88 | WLDWL | +0.14 | +0.03 | 0% | 15.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Texas Spurs NTX · Sun Apr 4 at SOLAR RED NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | SOLAR RED NTX | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 7 | 0.88 | LWDLL | +0.87 | -0.54 | 0% | 15.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at DKSC NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 6 | 0.75 | WLLLW | -0.36 | +0.89 | 0% | 17.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Royal NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | DKSC NTX | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 5 | 0.71 | LDLDL | -0.28 | -0.44 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Sun Nov 1 at NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 39 | -37 | 2 | 0.25 | LDDLL | -0.28 | +1.03 | 0% | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FRISCO FUSION NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Tyler FC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 50 | -49 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.18 | +0.09 | 0% | 19.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Texas Spurs NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.