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NTX Celtic FC NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU16 · 20 teams · NTX Celtic FC (all teams)

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7th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
+2 goal diff · 15–13
WLLWWlast 5
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.7
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:50 AM

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NTX Celtic FC NTX
7th · 1.67 PPG
at
Fever United FC NTX
8th · 1.57 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 7 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.6 against · 1.15 expected points)

Season so farNTX Celtic FC NTXFever United FC NTX
Position7th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-23-2-2
Points per game1.671.57
Goals for / game2.51.1
Goals against / game2.20.7
Clean sheets24
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W W L L WD L L W D
Biggest win6–1 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX3–0 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX
Worst loss1–9 at Tyler FC NTX0–2 vs Sting Brave NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.28+0.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17+0.23

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth White NTX — we 6–1; they 3–0. Nido Dallas NTX — we 1–2; they 2–0. Sting Royal NTX — we 2–1; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Fever United FC NTX concede only 0.7/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Dallas Texans NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:50 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fever United FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTX Celtic FC NTX – Fever United FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.57 PPG		 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 3
Win
1.86 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Draw
1.57 PPG		 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.43 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
8.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 16%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 15%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Tyler FC NTX 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.86) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SOLAR WHITE NTX 2.75 (+1.08) 2nd (2.63) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 SOLAR BLUE NTX 2.43 (+0.76) 4th (2.18) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4 Sting Brave NTX 2.25 (+0.58) 3rd (2.22) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 2.25 (+0.58) 5th (1.89) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
6 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.00 (+0.33) 6th (1.81) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link NTX Celtic FC NTX to Fever United FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
7 favour them
-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 0–0 6–1 0–3 1–2 0–2 2–3 2–1 5–0 1–9 1–9 10–0 1–1 2–3 0–4 0–0 0–1 3–1 2–0 0–3 3–0 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7th Sting Royal NTX 14th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 17th Nido Dallas NTX 12th SOLAR RED NTX 16th Tyler FC NTX 1st Kernow Storm FC NTX 5th Texas Spurs NTX 9th FRISCO FUSION NTX 13th Sting Brave NTX 4th Fever United FC NTX 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 10th 20th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 12 Sep 24 Oct 10 Oct 18 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 11th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 20
05:10 PM
no score posted		 FRISCO FUSION NTX
13th · 2-1-4 · GD +4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 2–2 1.46 1.64 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:50 AM		 Fever United FC NTX
8th · 3-2-2 · GD +3		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.15 1.58 Upside
Thu Oct 29
08:15 PM		 Texas Spurs NTX
9th · 3-1-3 · GD -10		 Away
Railroad Park 		●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 3–2 1.77 1.60 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:50 AM		 DKSC NTX
18th · 1-2-4 · GD -8		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–0 2.22 1.66 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
20th · 0-0-8 · GD -49		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–0 2.91 1.77 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM		 SOLAR WHITE NTX
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +29		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.37 1.66 Upside
Sun Apr 11
09:50 AM		 Sting Black NTX
15th · 2-1-5 · GD -10		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.90 1.67 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
09:50 AM		 Dallas Texans Red NTX
10th · 2-1-2 · GD +3		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.37 1.65 Upside
Sat Apr 24
08:00 AM		 Sting Brave NTX
4th · 6-0-2 · GD +26		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.58 1.58 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Tyler FC NTX 8800 474+43 243.00 WWWWW +0.03 -0.23 100% 1.1
2 SOLAR WHITE NTX 8710 312+29 222.75 WWDWW -0.24 -0.38 100% 2.0
3 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7520 184+14 172.43 DWDWW +0.17 +0.31 76% 4.0
4 Sting Brave NTX 8602 326+26 182.25 WWWWW -0.72 +0.27 88% 3.6
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 8602 2413+11 182.25 WWWWL -0.23 +0.42 18% 5.9
6 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8512 2211+11 162.00 LLWDW -0.58 +0.25 11% 6.4
7 NTX Celtic FC NTX 6312 1513+2 101.67 WLLWW +0.17 -0.09 2% 8.7
8 Fever United FC NTX 7322 85+3 111.57 DWLLD +0.23 -0.53 2% 8.0
9 Texas Spurs NTX 7313 1525-10 101.43 LLWDW +0.54 -0.25 0% 11.2
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5212 96+3 71.40 WLDLW +0.59 -0.30 3% 8.4
11 Dallas Texans NTX 6222 1211+1 81.33 LWWDL -0.88 +0.68 0% 13.3
12 Nido Dallas NTX 8305 1316-3 91.13 LWLLL +0.29 -0.29 0% 12.1
13 FRISCO FUSION NTX 7214 1814+4 71.00 WLDLL +0.35 -0.37 1% 10.0
14 Sting Royal NTX 8143 1311+2 70.88 DDDLL -0.02 +0.02 0% 12.7
15 Sting Black NTX 8215 919-10 70.88 WLDWL +0.14 +0.03 0% 15.4
16 SOLAR RED NTX 8215 1333-20 70.88 LWDLL +0.87 -0.54 0% 15.1
17 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 8206 1022-12 60.75 WLLLW -0.36 +0.89 0% 17.4
18 DKSC NTX 7124 311-8 50.71 LDLDL -0.28 -0.44 0% 15.7
19 DKSC WHITE NTX 8026 239-37 20.25 LDDLL -0.28 +1.03 0% 19.2
20 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8008 150-49 00.00 LLLLL +0.18 +0.09 0% 19.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.