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SOLAR BLUE NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU16 · 20 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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3rd
5-2-0 record · 7 played
2.43 points per game
+14 goal diff · 18–4
DWDWWlast 5
78% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:00 AM

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SOLAR BLUE NTX
3rd · 2.43 PPG
vs
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
17th · 0.75 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 7 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.7 against · 2.70 expected points)

Season so farSOLAR BLUE NTXFC Dallas Youth White NTX
Position3rd17th
Record (W-D-L)5-2-02-0-6
Points per game2.430.75
Goals for / game2.61.3
Goals against / game0.62.8
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)W W D W DW L L L W
Biggest win6–0 vs Texas Spurs NTX6–0 vs DKSC WHITE NTX
Worst loss—1–6 at NTX Celtic FC NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.44-1.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17-0.36

Common opponents: SOLAR WHITE NTX — we 1–1; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth White NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR BLUE NTX – FC Dallas Youth White NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.25 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.13 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
78% top 4
22% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 34%
  4. 4th 39%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Tyler FC NTX 3.00 (+0.57) 1st (2.86) 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SOLAR WHITE NTX 2.75 (+0.32) 2nd (2.63) 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

23 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR BLUE NTX to FC Dallas Youth White NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
+4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 3–0 0–0 6–0 0–6 5–1 1–9 4–0 1–0 4–0 0–3 2–0 0–3 0–3 1–1 2–1 3–2 0–7 1–0 0–1 3–0 3–0 1–2 SOLAR BLUE NTX 3rd SOLAR WHITE NTX 2nd Dallas Texans Red N… 10th SOLAR RED NTX 16th Sting Black NTX 15th Sting Royal NTX 14th FRISCO FUSION NTX 13th DKSC WHITE NTX 19th Kernow Storm FC NTX 5th DKSC NTX 18th Fever United FC NTX 8th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 20th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 10th 20th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 12 Sep 24 Oct 10 Oct 18 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.31 · 5th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Sting Brave NTX
4th · 6-0-2 · GD +26		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.09 2.26 Upside
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM		 FC Dallas Youth White NTX
17th · 2-0-6 · GD -12		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 3–0 2.70 2.31 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
03:20 PM		 Dallas Texans NTX
11th · 2-2-2 · GD +1		 Away
Railroad Park 		●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–0 2.19 2.30 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
03:20 PM		 Nido Dallas NTX
12th · 3-0-5 · GD -3		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–0 2.38 2.31 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
01:30 PM		 Tyler FC NTX
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +43		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.59 2.16 Upside
Sun Apr 11
03:20 PM		 Kernow Storm FC NTX
5th · 6-0-2 · GD +11		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.78 2.13 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
01:30 PM		 DKSC WHITE NTX
19th · 0-2-6 · GD -37		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 5–0 2.96 2.19 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
03:20 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
6th · 5-1-2 · GD +11		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 2.01 2.18 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Tyler FC NTX 8800 474+43 243.00 WWWWW +0.03 -0.23 100% 1.1
2 SOLAR WHITE NTX 8710 312+29 222.75 WWDWW -0.24 -0.38 100% 2.0
3 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7520 184+14 172.43 DWDWW +0.17 +0.31 78% 3.9
4 Sting Brave NTX 8602 326+26 182.25 WWWWW -0.72 +0.27 88% 3.6
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 8602 2413+11 182.25 WWWWL -0.23 +0.42 16% 6.0
6 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8512 2211+11 162.00 LLWDW -0.58 +0.25 11% 6.3
7 NTX Celtic FC NTX 6312 1513+2 101.67 WLLWW +0.17 -0.09 2% 8.7
8 Fever United FC NTX 7322 85+3 111.57 DWLLD +0.23 -0.53 2% 8.0
9 Texas Spurs NTX 7313 1525-10 101.43 LLWDW +0.54 -0.25 0% 11.3
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5212 96+3 71.40 WLDLW +0.59 -0.30 3% 8.4
11 Dallas Texans NTX 6222 1211+1 81.33 LWWDL -0.88 +0.68 0% 13.2
12 Nido Dallas NTX 8305 1316-3 91.13 LWLLL +0.29 -0.29 0% 12.2
13 FRISCO FUSION NTX 7214 1814+4 71.00 WLDLL +0.35 -0.37 1% 10.0
14 Sting Royal NTX 8143 1311+2 70.88 DDDLL -0.02 +0.02 0% 12.7
15 Sting Black NTX 8215 919-10 70.88 WLDWL +0.14 +0.03 0% 15.4
16 SOLAR RED NTX 8215 1333-20 70.88 LWDLL +0.87 -0.54 0% 15.1
17 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 8206 1022-12 60.75 WLLLW -0.36 +0.89 0% 17.4
18 DKSC NTX 7124 311-8 50.71 LDLDL -0.28 -0.44 0% 15.8
19 DKSC WHITE NTX 8026 239-37 20.25 LDDLL -0.28 +1.03 0% 19.1
20 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8008 150-49 00.00 LLLLL +0.18 +0.09 0% 19.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.