Boise Thorns

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU13 · 19 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)

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13th

1-1-2 record · 4 played

1.00 points per game

-12 goal diff · 5–17

LWLDlast 4

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.7

+0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Jan 23, 02:00 PM

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Boise Thorns
13th · 1.00 PPG

Colorado EDGE
9th · 1.33 PPG

Long Lake Regional Park, Turf East A ↗ · turf far trip

6% 86%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.4 for, 4.5 against · 0.25 expected points)

Season so far	Boise Thorns	Colorado EDGE
Position	13th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-2	2-2-2
Points per game	1.00	1.33
Goals for / game	1.3	2.8
Goals against / game	4.3	1.5
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	D L W L	W L L D D
Biggest win	3–2 at Utah Avalanche	8–0 vs Colorado Storm North
Worst loss	0–10 at Idaho Rush	0–3 at Colorado Storm South
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.45	+0.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.46	-0.04

Game plan

Respect their attack
Colorado EDGE score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at La Roca FC North, 0–10 at Idaho Rush.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Long Lake Regional Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Colorado Rush sit 12th on 1.10 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above Colorado Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado EDGE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Thorns – Colorado EDGE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Jan 18 – Sun Jan 24); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.80 PPG	13th— holds	13th— holds	14th▼ down 1
Win 1.40 PPG	9th▲ up 4	9th▲ up 4	12th▲ up 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	13th— holds	13th— holds	14th▼ down 1
Loss 0.80 PPG	13th— holds	13th— holds	14th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

15.7 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th <1%
9th 1%
10th 1%
11th 2%
12th 4%
13th 6%
14th 11%
15th 13%
16th 20%
17th 23%
18th 18%
19th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CCV STARS	3.00 (+2.00)	1st (2.66)	50 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	La Roca FC North	2.50 (+1.50)	3rd (2.03)	41 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3	Arsenal Colorado	2.20 (+1.20)	4th (2.03)	36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4	Pride SC	1.80 (+0.80)	5th (1.82)	29 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5	Idaho Rush	1.75 (+0.75)	2nd (2.04)	28 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6	Colorado Storm South	1.73 (+0.73)	6th (1.76)	28 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
7	NUU Avalanche	1.67 (+0.67)	10th (1.39)	27 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8	Colorado Storm Central	1.56 (+0.56)	8th (1.48)	25 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9	Colorado EDGE	1.33 (+0.33)	7th (1.69)	A point next game
10	Utah Surf	1.33 (+0.33)	9th (1.47)	A point next game
11	Real Colorado Olympico	1.27 (+0.27)	13th (1.13)	A point next game
12	Colorado Rush	1.10 (+0.10)	15th (0.96)	A point next game

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 8th hardest of 19

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Jan 23 02:00 PM	Colorado EDGE 9th · 2-2-2 · GD +8	Away far trip Long Lake Regional Park · turf	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.25	0.85	Upside
Sun Jan 24 TBD	Arsenal Colorado 3rd · 6-4-0 · GD +12	Away	●●●●● Very tough	6%	0–3	0.27	0.75	Upside
Sat Feb 20 12:00 PM	Colorado Storm Central 8th · 4-2-3 · GD +4	Home Rocky Mountain High School	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.76	0.75	Upside
Sun Feb 21 TBD	Colorado Storm North 15th · 0-1-9 · GD -29	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–1	2.34	0.95	Bank it
Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM	NUU Avalanche 7th · 1-2-0 · GD +1	Home Meridian High School	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–2	0.75	0.93	Upside
Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM	CCV STARS 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15	Home Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	2%	1–5	0.11	0.85	Upside
Sun Mar 14 01:00 PM	Arizona Soccer Club 14th · 1-0-3 · GD -9	Home Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–1	1.62	0.92	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM	Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +10	Home Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.25	0.86	Upside
Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM	La Roca FC South 19th · 0-0-2 · GD -3	Away far trip La Roca FC Utah County Complex	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–2	0.94	0.87	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Utah Surf 10th · 1-1-1 · GD +0	Away	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–3	0.54	0.85	Upside
Sat May 1 11:00 AM	Utah Surf 10th · 1-1-1 · GD +0	Home Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–2	0.77	0.84	Upside
Sun May 2 11:00 AM	Utah Avalanche 18th · 0-0-2 · GD -2	Home Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.08	0.86	Upside
Sat May 8 09:00 AM	La Roca FC South 19th · 0-0-2 · GD -3	Home Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–2	1.22	0.88	Upside
Sun May 9 09:00 AM	La Roca FC North 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +6	Home Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.42	0.85	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CCV STARS

+15

3.00

WWWW

-0.05

-0.29

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	8–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pride SC (4th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arizona Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Arizona Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 at Boise Thorns See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	5–1	94%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	NM Rapids SC (17th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NM Rapids SC (17th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC North

2.50

WWDW

+0.01

-0.08

66%

4.0

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Utah Surf (10th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Surf (10th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boise Thorns (13th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Nov 21 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Jan 23 vs Pride SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Pride SC (4th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NM Rapids SC (17th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 1	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat May 8	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun May 9	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat May 15	at	La Roca FC South (19th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arsenal Colorado

+12

2.20

WWWWW

-0.36

+0.06

74%

3.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	1–1
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pride SC (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	NM Rapids SC (17th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Boise Thorns (13th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Pride SC (4th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pride SC

1.80

WLWWL

+0.45

-0.28

34%

5.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	CCV STARS (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado Storm Central · Sun Nov 1 vs Arsenal Colorado See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Utah Surf (10th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	3–0	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Idaho Rush

+10

1.75

WLWD

-0.25

-0.10

70%

3.9

D	Sun Oct 11	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Boise Thorns (13th)	10–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 11 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Jan 23 at Arsenal Colorado · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado EDGE See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1	58%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	CCV STARS (1st)	2–2	31%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Utah Surf (10th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	La Roca FC South (19th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Utah Surf (10th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC North (2nd)	2–1	54%
·	Sun May 9	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	3–1	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm South

+12

1.73

WWLLW

-0.16

+0.06

19%

6.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Pride SC (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	CCV STARS (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	4–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Jan 23 at Utah Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Pride SC (4th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–0	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NUU Avalanche

1.67

WDD

-0.22

+0.16

10.3

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Boise Thorns (13th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	La Roca FC South (19th)	2–1

Next: Sat Sep 19 at Utah Surf · Sun Oct 11 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado EDGE See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	CCV STARS (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 1	vs	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	30%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Central

1.56

DWWLL

-0.35

+0.19

9.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Pride SC · Sun Nov 8 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Nov 21 vs NUU Avalanche See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Pride SC (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	0–0	40%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NM Rapids SC (17th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–1	20%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Pride SC (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado EDGE

1.33

DDLLW

-0.04

-0.14

18%

6.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pride SC (4th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Nov 7 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Nov 8 at Utah Avalanche See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	NM Rapids SC (17th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Boise Thorns (13th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Pride SC (4th)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Surf

1.33

DLW

+0.32

-0.09

9.4

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	La Roca FC North (2nd)	2–2

Next: Sat Sep 19 vs NUU Avalanche · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC South See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Pride SC (4th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NM Rapids SC (17th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Boise Thorns (13th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat May 1	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun May 2	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Olympico

-4

1.27

WDLLW

-0.28

+0.43

13.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	CCV STARS (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pride SC (4th)	0–5
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado Storm South · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	0–0	26%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	La Roca FC North (2nd)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Pride SC (4th)	0–1	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush

-14

1.10

DLWLL

+0.07

+0.13

14.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	CCV STARS (1st)	1–8
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	2–4
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–0
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–5

Next: Sat Sep 19 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Oct 31 at Colorado Storm South See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Pride SC (4th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Utah Surf (10th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Pride SC (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Pride SC (4th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boise Thorns

-12

1.00

LWLD

+0.46

+0.09

15.7

D	Sat Oct 10	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	0–10
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado EDGE · Sun Jan 24 at Arsenal Colorado · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	CCV STARS (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Utah Surf (10th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Utah Surf (10th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun May 9	vs	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Soccer Club

-9

0.75

LLWL

-0.05

+0.38

17.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Pride SC (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs CCV STARS · Sun Nov 8 at CCV STARS · Sat Mar 13 at Idaho Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CCV STARS (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	CCV STARS (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	NM Rapids SC (17th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	NM Rapids SC (17th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm North

-29

0.10

LLDLL

+0.25

+0.06

19.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Colorado EDGE (9th)	0–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pride SC · Sat Nov 7 at Colorado Rush · Sat Nov 21 vs Utah Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Pride SC (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	NM Rapids SC (17th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Pride SC (4th)	0–3	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14

0.00

—

+0.12

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Dec 12 at Colorado Storm North See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NM Rapids SC (17th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	NM Rapids SC (17th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	CCV STARS (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	CCV STARS (1st)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NM Rapids SC

0.00

—

+0.12

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Dec 12 at Colorado Storm Central See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	CCV STARS (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	CCV STARS (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Avalanche

-2

0.00

-0.05

-0.06

13.7

L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Boise Thorns (13th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	0–1

Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Oct 10 vs La Roca FC North · Sat Oct 24 at Utah Surf See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Arsenal Colorado (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Colorado EDGE (9th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Colorado Storm North (15th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado Storm Central (8th)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	La Roca FC South (19th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Arizona Soccer Club (14th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	CCV STARS (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat May 1	at	Colorado Rush (12th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat May 1	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun May 2	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun May 16	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC South

-3

0.00

+0.08

-0.00

15.0

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Utah Surf (10th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf · Sun Dec 6 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Surf (10th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Colorado Rush (12th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Real Colorado Olympico (11th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Storm South (6th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Pride SC (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NM Rapids SC (17th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 (16th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NUU Avalanche (7th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Utah Avalanche (18th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Boise Thorns (13th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat May 8	at	Boise Thorns (13th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun May 9	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat May 15	vs	La Roca FC North (2nd)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.