Utah Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU13 · 19 teams · Utah Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Utah Valley University Geneva Fields, South Field ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.3 against · 1.80 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Surf | Utah Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 18th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-1 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D | L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs La Roca FC South | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at La Roca FC North | 0–1 vs Idaho Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.06 | -0.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.32 | -0.05 |
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 22% / loss 25%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Colorado EDGE sit 9th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Colorado EDGE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Surf – Utah Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.25 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
6th▲ up 4 | 7th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
12th▼ down 2 | 11th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 13%
- 10th 14%
- 11th 13%
- 12th 8%
- 13th 6%
- 14th 4%
- 15th 3%
- 16th 2%
- 17th 1%
- 18th <1%
- 19th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCV STARS | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.66) | 50 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 2 | La Roca FC North | 2.50 (+1.17) | 3rd (2.03) | 41 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | Arsenal Colorado | 2.20 (+0.87) | 4th (2.03) | 36 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | Pride SC | 1.80 (+0.47) | 5th (1.82) | 29 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 5 | Idaho Rush | 1.75 (+0.42) | 2nd (2.04) | Win next game |
| 6 | Colorado Storm South | 1.73 (+0.40) | 6th (1.76) | A point next game |
| 7 | NUU Avalanche | 1.67 (+0.34) | 10th (1.39) | A point next game |
| 8 | Colorado Storm Central | 1.56 (+0.23) | 8th (1.48) | A point next game |
| 9 | Colorado EDGE | 1.33 (+0.00) | 7th (1.69) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Surf to Utah Avalanche through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 15th hardest of 19
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 19 12:30 PM no score posted |
NUU Avalanche 7th · 1-2-0 · GD +1 |
Home Epic Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche 18th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home Utah Valley University Geneva Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM |
La Roca FC South 19th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Real Colorado Olympico 11th · 4-2-5 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 02:00 PM |
Colorado Storm South 6th · 6-1-4 · GD +12 |
Home Utah Valley University Geneva Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.04 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 01:00 PM |
Pride SC 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +5 |
Home Utah Valley University Geneva Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.20 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Colorado Rush 12th · 3-2-5 · GD -14 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
NUU Avalanche 7th · 1-2-0 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Utah Avalanche 18th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
NM Rapids SC 17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Boise Thorns 13th · 1-1-2 · GD -12 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 1.48 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
Boise Thorns 13th · 1-1-2 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.06 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.62 | 1.47 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CCV STARS | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.05 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arizona Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Arizona Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 at Boise Thorns See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | La Roca FC North | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | +0.01 | -0.08 | 67% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Nov 21 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Jan 23 vs Pride SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arsenal Colorado | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 22 | 2.20 | WWWWW | -0.36 | +0.06 | 73% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pride SC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | +0.45 | -0.28 | 35% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado Storm Central · Sun Nov 1 vs Arsenal Colorado See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Idaho Rush | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | -0.25 | -0.10 | 72% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Jan 23 at Arsenal Colorado · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado EDGE See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado Storm South | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 19 | 1.73 | WWLLW | -0.16 | +0.06 | 19% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Jan 23 at Utah Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | NUU Avalanche | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | WDD | -0.22 | +0.16 | 3% | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Utah Surf · Sun Oct 11 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado EDGE See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Colorado Storm Central | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 | 1.56 | DWWLL | -0.35 | +0.19 | 2% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Pride SC · Sun Nov 8 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Nov 21 vs NUU Avalanche See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Colorado EDGE | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 8 | 1.33 | DDLLW | -0.04 | -0.14 | 18% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Nov 7 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Nov 8 at Utah Avalanche See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Utah Surf | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 4 | 1.33 | DLW | +0.32 | -0.09 | 4% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs NUU Avalanche · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC South See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Real Colorado Olympico | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 14 | 1.27 | WDLLW | -0.28 | +0.43 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado Storm South · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Colorado Rush | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 11 | 1.10 | DLWLL | +0.07 | +0.13 | 0% | 14.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Oct 31 at Colorado Storm South See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Boise Thorns | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.46 | +0.09 | 0% | 15.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado EDGE · Sun Jan 24 at Arsenal Colorado · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Arizona Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | -0.05 | +0.38 | 0% | 17.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs CCV STARS · Sun Nov 8 at CCV STARS · Sat Mar 13 at Idaho Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Colorado Storm North | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 31 | -29 | 1 | 0.10 | LLDLL | +0.25 | +0.06 | 0% | 19.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pride SC · Sat Nov 7 at Colorado Rush · Sat Nov 21 vs Utah Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | El Paso Locomotive FC G13/14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.12 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Dec 12 at Colorado Storm North See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.12 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Dec 12 at Colorado Storm Central See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Utah Avalanche | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | -0.05 | -0.06 | 0% | 13.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Oct 10 vs La Roca FC North · Sat Oct 24 at Utah Surf See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | La Roca FC South | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.08 | -0.00 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf · Sun Dec 6 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.