FC Wisconsin

ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU14 · 4 teams · FC Wisconsin Girls (all teams)

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4th

0-0-5 record · 5 played

0.00 points per game

-23 goal diff · 1–24

LLLlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0

+0.80 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 12:00 PM

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FC Wisconsin
4th · 0.00 PPG

Evolution
2nd · 1.80 PPG

Marmion Academy, Field 1 ↗ far trip

5% 10% 84%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.7 for, 3.2 against · 0.26 expected points)

Season so far	FC Wisconsin	Evolution
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-5	3-0-2
Points per game	0.00	1.80
Goals for / game	0.2	1.4
Goals against / game	4.8	1.8
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	3	0
Form (recent first)	L L L	W W W
Biggest win	—	2–0 vs Chicago Inter
Worst loss	0–5 vs Rockford Raptors FC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.29	+0.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.80	+0.36

Common opponents: Rockford Raptors FC — we 0–5; they 1–0. Chicago Inter — we 0–1; they 2–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs Rockford Raptors FC, 0–5 vs FC 1974 Libertyville, 0–1 vs Chicago Inter.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 5%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Evolution have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Marmion Academy.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Evolution game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wisconsin – Evolution) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 0.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 0.17 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

4.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 100%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC 1974 Libertyville	2.33 (+2.33)	1st (2.21)	28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Evolution	1.80 (+1.80)	2nd (1.68)	22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
3	Rockford Raptors FC	0.80 (+0.80)	3rd (1.27)	10 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link FC Wisconsin to Evolution through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

1 favour them

-6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

2 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.25 · 1st hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Evolution 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD -2	Away far trip Marmion Academy	●●●●● Very tough	5%	0–3	0.26	0.04	Upside
Sun Mar 21 12:00 PM	Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 1-1-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Mercyhealth Sportscore Two	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.21	0.07	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Nationals SC	Home	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–3	0.39	0.11	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Liverpool FC MI	Home	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–3	0.39	0.14	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +9	Away	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.07	0.13	Upside
Sun May 23 10:30 AM	Eclipse Select Soccer Club	Home FC Wisconsin Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–3	0.39	0.16	Upside
Tue Jun 1 12:00 PM	Evolution 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD -2	Home University School Milwaukee · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.39	0.18	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC 1974 Libertyville

2.33

WWD

-2.29

-0.15

100%

1.2

D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 1 at Evolution · Sun Mar 21 vs Evolution See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Evolution (2nd)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Evolution (2nd)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Nationals SC (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Nationals SC (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Michigan Hawks (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Evolution

-2

1.80

WWW

+0.36

-0.26

100%

1.9

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Mar 21 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	1–1	45%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Michigan Hawks (—)	1–1	45%
·	Tue Jun 1	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	2–0	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rockford Raptors FC

0.80

WLL

-1.02

+0.03

100%

2.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Evolution (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Nov 1 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Mar 21 vs FC Wisconsin See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Nationals SC (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Evolution (2nd)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Wisconsin

-23

0.00

LLL

+0.80

+0.25

100%

4.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	0–5

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Evolution · Sun Mar 21 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Apr 10 vs Nationals SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Evolution (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Nationals SC (—)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	0–3	9%
·	Tue Jun 1	vs	Evolution (2nd)	0–2	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.67 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.