Evolution
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU14 · 4 teams · Evolution SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM
Nike Park Sports Complex, Turf field ↗ · turf
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.9 against · 0.87 expected points)
| Season so far | Evolution | FC 1974 Libertyville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-2 | 2-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W | D W W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Chicago Inter | 5–0 at FC Wisconsin |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.10 | +1.19 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.36 | -2.29 |
Common opponents: Chicago Inter — we 2–0; they 0–0. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 2–1; they 4–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
FC 1974 Libertyville score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
FC 1974 Libertyville concede only 0.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC 1974 Libertyville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Evolution – FC 1974 Libertyville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 15%
- 2nd 78%
- 3rd 7%
- 4th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 2.33 (+0.53) | 1st (2.21) | 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Evolution to FC 1974 Libertyville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
2 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 4th hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +9 |
Home Nike Park Sports Complex · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.87 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-0-5 · GD -23 |
Home Marmion Academy |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.63 | 1.79 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 PM |
FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
LTSC |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–2 | 0.67 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 1-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 03:00 PM |
Liverpool FC MI |
Home Stuart Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 11:00 AM |
Michigan Hawks |
Home Stuart Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Tue Jun 1 12:00 PM |
FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-0-5 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
University School Milwaukee · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.47 | 1.68 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 7 | 2.33 | WWD | -2.29 | -0.15 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 1 at Evolution · Sun Mar 21 vs Evolution See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Evolution | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 | 1.80 | WWW | +0.36 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Mar 21 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 | 0.80 | WLL | -1.02 | +0.03 | 100% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Nov 1 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Mar 21 vs FC Wisconsin See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wisconsin | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.80 | +0.25 | 100% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Evolution · Sun Mar 21 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Apr 10 vs Nationals SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.67 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.