FC 1974 Libertyville

ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU14 · 4 teams · Greater Libertyville Soccer Association (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 22 hours ago.

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1st

2-1-0 record · 3 played

2.33 points per game

+9 goal diff · 9–0

WWDlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2

-2.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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FC 1974 Libertyville
1st · 2.33 PPG

Rockford Raptors FC
3rd · 0.80 PPG

Mercyhealth Sportscore Two, Field TBA (11v11) ↗ far trip

48% 25% 26%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.1 against · 1.71 expected points)

Season so far	FC 1974 Libertyville	Rockford Raptors FC
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-0	1-1-3
Points per game	2.33	0.80
Goals for / game	3.0	1.2
Goals against / game	0.0	0.8
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	D W W	L L W
Biggest win	5–0 at FC Wisconsin	5–0 at FC Wisconsin
Worst loss	—	0–1 vs Evolution
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.19	+0.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-2.29	-1.02

Common opponents: FC Wisconsin — we 5–0; they 5–0. Chicago Inter — we 0–0; they 0–1.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Rockford Raptors FC concede only 0.8/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Chicago Inter.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 25% / loss 26%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Mercyhealth Sportscore Two.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rockford Raptors FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC 1974 Libertyville – Rockford Raptors FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 1.75 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

84% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.2 average finish

1st 84%
2nd 15%
3rd 1%
4th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link FC 1974 Libertyville to Rockford Raptors FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

2 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 3rd hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 1-1-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Mercyhealth Sportscore Two	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.71	2.18	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Evolution 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD -2	Away far trip Nike Park Sports Complex · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–1	1.90	2.12	Swing game
Sun Mar 21 12:00 PM	Evolution 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD -2	Home LTSC	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–0	2.13	2.12	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 12:00 PM	Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 1-1-3 · GD +2	Home LTSC	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–0	1.94	2.10	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-0-5 · GD -23	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.90	2.20	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	Nationals SC	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.24	2.20	Swing game
Sun May 9 TBD	Nationals SC	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.24	2.20	Swing game
Sat May 15 12:00 PM	Michigan Hawks	Home LTSC	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.24	2.21	Swing game
Sun May 16 10:00 AM	Liverpool FC MI	Home LTSC	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.24	2.21	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC 1974 Libertyville

2.33

WWD

-2.29

-0.15

100%

1.2

D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 1 at Evolution · Sun Mar 21 vs Evolution See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Evolution (2nd)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Evolution (2nd)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Nationals SC (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Nationals SC (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Michigan Hawks (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Evolution

-2

1.80

WWW

+0.36

-0.26

100%

1.9

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Mar 21 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	1–1	45%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Michigan Hawks (—)	1–1	45%
·	Tue Jun 1	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	2–0	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rockford Raptors FC

0.80

WLL

-1.02

+0.03

100%

2.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Evolution (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Nov 1 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Mar 21 vs FC Wisconsin See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Nationals SC (—)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Evolution (2nd)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Wisconsin

-23

0.00

LLL

+0.80

+0.25

100%

4.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	0–5

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Evolution · Sun Mar 21 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Apr 10 vs Nationals SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Evolution (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Nationals SC (—)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	0–3	9%
·	Tue Jun 1	vs	Evolution (2nd)	0–2	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.67 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.