Toca Fusion Elite
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU13 · 6 teams · Toca Fusion Athletic Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Compass Minerals Sporting Fields, Field 2 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.1 against · 1.99 expected points)
| Season so far | Toca Fusion Elite | Sporting Blue Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-3 | 1-0-7 |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 0.38 |
| Goals for / game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L D L | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at Sporting Iowa | 3–0 at Gretna Elite Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Kansas Rush Gold | 0–5 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.33 | -1.21 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.66 | +0.23 |
Common opponents: Kansas Rush Gold — we 0–2; they 1–3. Kansas City Athletics — we 0–0; they 0–4. Omaha United SC — we 1–3; they 0–4.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting Blue Valley concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–5 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Kansas Rush Gold, 0–0 vs Kansas City Athletics.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 21% / loss 20%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Blue Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Toca Fusion Elite – Sporting Blue Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.38 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.38 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.13 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 84%
- 5th 3%
- 6th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.35 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 2.57 (+1.43) | 1st (2.24) | 44 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 2 | Omaha United SC | 1.80 (+0.66) | 2nd (1.82) | 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 1.50 (+0.36) | 3rd (1.64) | 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
How the results connect
8 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Toca Fusion Elite to Sporting Blue Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.20 · 6th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Sporting Blue Valley 6th · 1-0-7 · GD -20 |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL |
Home Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Gretna Elite Academy 5th · 1-1-8 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.73 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Sporting Blue Valley 6th · 1-0-7 · GD -20 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.74 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
AFA Fillies |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Missouri Rush |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 3-3-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–1 | 0.78 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Gretna Elite Academy 5th · 1-1-8 · GD -20 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
1–0 | 1.96 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Kansas Rush Gold 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +14 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.50 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Sporting Iowa |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
FC United Iowa |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Omaha United SC 2nd · 5-3-2 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.65 | 1.24 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWW | -0.91 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Omaha United SC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 18 | 1.80 | DWWDW | -0.54 | -0.03 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Mar 13 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs Sporting Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 12 | 1.50 | WLDDD | -0.46 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs FC United Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Toca Fusion Elite | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | 1.14 | LDLWL | +0.66 | -0.20 | 97% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 4 | 0.40 | WLDLL | +0.22 | +0.02 | 1% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Omaha United SC · Sat Mar 20 vs FC United Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Blue Valley | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLWL | +0.23 | +0.03 | 2% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Nov 21 vs FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs Sporting Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.