Kansas Rush Gold
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU13 · 6 teams · Kansas Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Compass Minerals National Performance Center, WEST ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.4 for, 0.9 against · 1.75 expected points)
| Season so far | Kansas Rush Gold | Kansas City Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-1 | 3-3-2 |
| Points per game | 2.57 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | D D D L W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at Toca Fusion Elite | 4–0 at Sporting Blue Valley |
| Worst loss | — | 2–3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.96 | +0.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.91 | -0.46 |
Common opponents: Toca Fusion Elite — we 2–0; they 0–0. Sporting Blue Valley — we 3–1; they 4–0. Gretna Elite Academy — we 2–0; they 1–1.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 28% / loss 23%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Athletics game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas Rush Gold – Kansas City Athletics) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.38 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 92%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
8 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Kansas Rush Gold to Kansas City Athletics through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 3-3-2 · GD +4 |
Home Compass Minerals National Performance Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–0 | 1.75 | 2.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 2.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 10:00 AM |
Omaha United SC 2nd · 5-3-2 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Levi Carter Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 2.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 3-3-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–0 | 1.54 | 2.26 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Missouri Rush |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
AFA Fillies |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Sporting Blue Valley 6th · 1-0-7 · GD -20 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.59 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Omaha United SC 2nd · 5-3-2 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 4th · 2-2-3 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.32 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC United Iowa |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Sporting Iowa |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 02:45 PM |
Gretna Elite Academy 5th · 1-1-8 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
2–0 | 2.54 | 2.24 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWW | -0.91 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Omaha United SC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 18 | 1.80 | DWWDW | -0.54 | -0.03 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Mar 13 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs Sporting Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 12 | 1.50 | WLDDD | -0.46 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs FC United Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Toca Fusion Elite | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | 1.14 | LDLWL | +0.66 | -0.20 | 97% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 4 | 0.40 | WLDLL | +0.22 | +0.02 | 1% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Omaha United SC · Sat Mar 20 vs FC United Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Blue Valley | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLWL | +0.23 | +0.03 | 2% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Nov 21 vs FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs Sporting Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.