Sporting Blue Valley
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU13 · 6 teams · Sporting Blue Valley (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Compass Minerals Sporting Fields, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.0 against · 0.80 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting Blue Valley | Toca Fusion Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-7 | 2-2-3 |
| Points per game | 0.38 | 1.14 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals against / game | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L L | L W L D L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Gretna Elite Academy | 2–0 at Sporting Iowa |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO | 0–2 vs Kansas Rush Gold |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.21 | -0.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.23 | +0.66 |
Common opponents: Kansas City Athletics — we 0–4; they 0–0. Omaha United SC — we 0–4; they 1–3. Kansas Rush Gold — we 1–3; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 vs Kansas City Athletics, 0–2 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL, 0–5 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO, 0–4 at Omaha United SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Compass Minerals Sporting Fields.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Gretna Elite Academy sit 5th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.38.A point moves us above Gretna Elite Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Toca Fusion Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Blue Valley – Toca Fusion Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.33 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.44 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.33 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 2%
- 5th 53%
- 6th 45%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 2.57 (+2.19) | 1st (2.24) | 44 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Omaha United SC | 1.80 (+1.42) | 2nd (1.82) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 1.50 (+1.12) | 3rd (1.64) | 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Toca Fusion Elite | 1.14 (+0.76) | 4th (1.24) | 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 0.40 (+0.02) | 6th (0.56) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
8 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting Blue Valley to Toca Fusion Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 1st hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Toca Fusion Elite 4th · 2-2-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Compass Minerals Sporting Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
FC United Iowa |
Home Paragon Star |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.46 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 TBD |
Sporting Iowa |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.49 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 4th · 2-2-3 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.03 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Kansas Rush Gold 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +14 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.30 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 3-3-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.41 | 0.51 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Gretna Elite Academy 5th · 1-1-8 · GD -20 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 0.58 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Omaha United SC 2nd · 5-3-2 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.41 | 0.57 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Missouri Rush |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.58 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
AFA Fillies |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.59 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWW | -0.91 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Omaha United SC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 18 | 1.80 | DWWDW | -0.54 | -0.03 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Mar 13 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs Sporting Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 12 | 1.50 | WLDDD | -0.46 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs FC United Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Toca Fusion Elite | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | 1.14 | LDLWL | +0.66 | -0.20 | 97% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 4 | 0.40 | WLDLL | +0.22 | +0.02 | 1% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Omaha United SC · Sat Mar 20 vs FC United Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Blue Valley | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLWL | +0.23 | +0.03 | 2% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Nov 21 vs FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs Sporting Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.