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Kansas City Athletics

ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU13 · 6 teams · KC Athletics (all teams)

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3rd
3-3-2 record · 8 played
1.50 points per game
+4 goal diff · 12–8
WLDDDlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
-0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Kansas City Athletics
3rd · 1.50 PPG
at
Kansas Rush Gold
1st · 2.57 PPG

Compass Minerals National Performance Center, WEST ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.4 against · 0.98 expected points)

Season so farKansas City AthleticsKansas Rush Gold
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)3-3-26-0-1
Points per game1.502.57
Goals for / game1.52.7
Goals against / game1.00.7
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)D D D L WW W W W
Biggest win4–0 at Sporting Blue Valley2–0 at Toca Fusion Elite
Worst loss2–3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.40+0.96
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.46-0.91

Common opponents: Sporting Blue Valley — we 4–0; they 3–1. Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–1; they 2–0. Toca Fusion Elite — we 0–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Kansas Rush Gold score 2.7/game — well above the league's 1.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Omaha United SC, 0–0 at Toca Fusion Elite.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 23%; a draw (28%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Kansas Rush Gold have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Compass Minerals National Performance Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kansas Rush Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas City Athletics – Kansas Rush Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.33 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Win
1.67 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
1.44 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.33 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 27%
  3. 3rd 60%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Kansas Rush Gold 2.57 (+1.07) 1st (2.24) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
2 Omaha United SC 1.80 (+0.30) 2nd (1.82) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Kansas City Athletics to Kansas Rush Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
-0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 0–2 1–1 0–2 4–0 1–3 0–0 3–1 3–2 4–0 0–3 Kansas City Athleti… 3rd Toca Fusion Elite 4th Gretna Elite Academy 5th Sporting Blue Valley 6th Omaha United SC 2nd Kansas Rush Gold 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 3rd 6th Aug 23 Sep 6 Sep 20 Oct 11

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 3rd hardest of 6

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM		 Kansas Rush Gold
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +14		 Away far trip
Compass Minerals National Performance Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 0–1 0.98 1.44 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM		 Sporting Iowa
 Home
Paragon Star Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–0 1.77 1.47 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 FC United Iowa
 Home
Paragon Star Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–0 1.77 1.50 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Kansas Rush Gold
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +14		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 0–1 1.17 1.47 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Toca Fusion Elite
4th · 2-2-3 · GD -2		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–0 1.96 1.51 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Sporting Blue Valley
6th · 1-0-7 · GD -20		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 2–0 2.44 1.58 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD		 Omaha United SC
2nd · 5-3-2 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.43 1.57 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Gretna Elite Academy
5th · 1-1-8 · GD -20		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–0 2.39 1.62 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 AFA Fillies
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–0 1.77 1.63 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD		 Missouri Rush
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–0 1.77 1.64 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Kansas Rush Gold 7601 195+14 182.57 WWWW -0.91 -0.04 100% 1.1
2 Omaha United SC 10532 2114+7 181.80 DWWDW -0.54 -0.03 100% 2.2
3 Kansas City Athletics 8332 128+4 121.50 WLDDD -0.46 -0.01 100% 2.8
4 Toca Fusion Elite 7223 810-2 81.14 LDLWL +0.66 -0.20 97% 3.9
5 Gretna Elite Academy 10118 727-20 40.40 WLDLL +0.22 +0.02 1% 5.5
6 Sporting Blue Valley 8107 626-20 30.38 LLLWL +0.23 +0.03 2% 5.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.