Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers
ECNL Regional League Girls · Gulf Coast GU18/19 · 9 teams · Mandeville Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Mar 14, 09:00 AM
Pelican Park Purple Complex, Purple 1 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 0.7 against · 2.76 expected points)
| Season so far | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | Louisiana Fire SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 4.6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club | — |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at Coastal Rush | 0–13 vs LA Elite SP |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.54 | -2.80 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.47 | +0.25 |
Common opponents: Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 4–0; they 0–1. Gulf Coast United FC — we 2–0; they 0–2. Union 10 — we 1–0; they 0–3. LA Krewe Rush — we 3–0; they 0–4. LA Elite SP — we 1–4; they 0–13.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Louisiana Fire SC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 5 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Louisiana Fire SC concede 4.6/game; worst result 0–13 vs LA Elite SP.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Louisiana Fire SC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Louisiana Fire SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers – Louisiana Fire SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 100%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Elite SP | 3.00 (+0.86) | 1st (2.88) | 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Coastal Rush | 3.00 (+0.86) | 2nd (2.67) | 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
31 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers to Louisiana Fire SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -2.80 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Louisiana Fire SC 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -23 |
Home Pelican Park Purple Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.76 | 2.22 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LA Elite SP | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | +48 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +1.48 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Gulf Coast United FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Coastal Rush | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 5 | +29 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.82 | +0.49 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Mar 7 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWL | +0.47 | -2.80 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Gulf Coast United FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLLL | -0.62 | +4.93 | 2% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 at LA Elite SP See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | LA Krewe Rush | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 10 | 1.25 | LLWLD | +0.16 | — | 31% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 33 | -19 | 10 | 1.25 | LWLWD | +0.26 | — | 0% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | +0.66 | -0.56 | 67% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Union 10 · Sun Nov 8 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Union 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 29 | -23 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.65 | -0.68 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Louisiana Fire SC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.25 | +1.03 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Mar 7 at Coastal Rush · Sun Mar 14 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.