Coastal Rush
ECNL Regional League Girls · Gulf Coast GU18/19 · 9 teams · Coastal Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Merrimack Sports Complex, Field 15 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.1 against · 2.68 expected points)
| Season so far | Coastal Rush | Alabama FC Huntsville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 6.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L W L L W |
| Biggest win | 12–1 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 2–0 at LA Krewe Rush |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 at LA Elite SP |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +3.24 | -0.68 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.82 | +0.66 |
Common opponents: LA Krewe Rush — we 5–2; they 2–0. Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 12–1; they 1–0. Gulf Coast United FC — we 4–1; they 0–3. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 5–1; they 1–3.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Alabama FC Huntsville average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 2 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Merrimack Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
LA Elite SP sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.A win moves us above LA Elite SP on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Alabama FC Huntsville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Coastal Rush – Alabama FC Huntsville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 17%
- 2nd 83%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Elite SP | 3.00 (+0.00) | 1st (2.88) | Win next game |
How the results connect
24 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Coastal Rush to Alabama FC Huntsville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.49 · 4th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 3 11:00 AM no score posted |
LA Elite SP 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +48 |
Home Ashton Brosnaham |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
2–3 | 0.73 | 2.62 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Merrimack Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
4–1 | 2.68 | 2.63 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
Louisiana Fire SC 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -23 |
Home Ashton Brosnaham |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.99 | 2.67 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LA Elite SP | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | +48 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +1.48 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Gulf Coast United FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Coastal Rush | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 5 | +29 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.82 | +0.49 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Mar 7 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWL | +0.47 | -2.80 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Gulf Coast United FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLLL | -0.62 | +4.93 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 at LA Elite SP See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | LA Krewe Rush | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 10 | 1.25 | LLWLD | +0.16 | — | 31% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 33 | -19 | 10 | 1.25 | LWLWD | +0.26 | — | 0% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | +0.66 | -0.56 | 67% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Union 10 · Sun Nov 8 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Union 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 29 | -23 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.65 | -0.68 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Louisiana Fire SC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.25 | +1.03 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Mar 7 at Coastal Rush · Sun Mar 14 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.