Gulf Coast United FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Gulf Coast GU18/19 · 9 teams · Gulf Coast United FC (all teams)

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4th

3-0-4 record · 7 played

1.29 points per game

+0 goal diff · 14–14

LWLLLlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7

-0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Mar 14, 03:00 PM

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Gulf Coast United FC
4th · 1.29 PPG

LA Elite SP
1st · 3.00 PPG

Burbank Soccer Complex, Field 9 ↗ far trip

1% 97%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.8 for, 6.0 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so far	Gulf Coast United FC	LA Elite SP
Position	4th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-4	6-0-0
Points per game	1.29	3.00
Goals for / game	2.0	8.2
Goals against / game	2.0	0.2
Clean sheets	3	5
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L L L W L	W W W W W
Biggest win	6–0 vs Union 10	13–0 at Louisiana Fire SC
Worst loss	1–6 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.27	+4.93
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.62	-1.26

Common opponents: Alabama FC Huntsville — we 3–0; they 5–0. Louisiana Fire SC — we 2–0; they 13–0. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 0–2; they 4–1. Union 10 — we 6–0; they 7–0. LA Krewe Rush — we 1–2; they 9–0. Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 1–6; they 11–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
LA Elite SP score 8.2/game — well above the league's 2.6.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
LA Elite SP concede only 0.2/game with 5 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
LA Elite SP have won 6 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Burbank Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Elite SP game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gulf Coast United FC – LA Elite SP) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.13 PPG	7th▼ down 3	7th▼ down 3	7th▼ down 3
Win 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.25 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.13 PPG	7th▼ down 3	7th▼ down 3	7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we fall to at least 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

6.7 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 1%
5th 1%
6th 25%
7th 73%
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	LA Elite SP	3.00 (+1.71)	1st (2.88)	15 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Coastal Rush	3.00 (+1.71)	2nd (2.67)	15 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers	2.14 (+0.85)	3rd (2.22)	9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

34 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Gulf Coast United FC to LA Elite SP through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

33 favour them

-7.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +4.93 · 1st hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Mar 14 03:00 PM	LA Elite SP 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +48	Away far trip Burbank Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–5	0.05	1.13	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

LA Elite SP

+48

3.00

WWWWW

-1.26

+1.48

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Union 10 (8th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	9–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (3rd)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Louisiana Fire SC (9th)	13–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (7th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (6th)	11–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Gulf Coast United FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Coastal Rush (2nd)	3–2	67%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (4th)	5–0	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Rush

+29

3.00

WWWWW

-0.82

+0.49

100%

1.8

W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (3rd)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Gulf Coast United FC (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (6th)	12–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	5–2
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Union 10 (8th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Mar 7 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	LA Elite SP (1st)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (7th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (9th)	7–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers

2.14

WLWWL

+0.47

-2.80

100%

3.0

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	LA Elite SP (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (7th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Coastal Rush (2nd)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Union 10 (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (6th)	4–0

Next: Sun Mar 14 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (9th)	3–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gulf Coast United FC

1.29

LWLLL

-0.62

+4.93

6.7

L	Mon Oct 12	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (6th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Coastal Rush (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union 10 (8th)	6–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (7th)	3–0

Next: Sun Mar 14 at LA Elite SP See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Mar 14	at	LA Elite SP (1st)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LA Krewe Rush

-10

1.25

LLWLD

+0.16

—

31%

4.7

Hattiesburg Futbol Club

-19

1.25

LWLWD

+0.26

—

5.8

Alabama FC Huntsville

-7

1.20

WLLWL

+0.66

-0.56

68%

4.8

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (3rd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	LA Elite SP (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Gulf Coast United FC (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Union 10 · Sun Nov 8 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Coastal Rush (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union 10 (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (9th)	2–0	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union 10

-23

0.43

LLLLL

+0.65

-0.68

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	LA Elite SP (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Gulf Coast United FC (4th)	0–6
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Coastal Rush (2nd)	0–8
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (9th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (7th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Louisiana Fire SC

-23

0.00

LLLLL

+0.25

+1.03

9.0

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	LA Elite SP (1st)	0–13
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Gulf Coast United FC (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Union 10 (8th)	0–3

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Mar 7 at Coastal Rush · Sun Mar 14 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (7th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Coastal Rush (2nd)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (3rd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.