Alabama FC Huntsville
ECNL Regional League Girls · Gulf Coast GU18/19 · 9 teams · Alabama FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Merrimack Sports Complex, Field 15 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.1 for, 4.1 against · 0.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Alabama FC Huntsville | Coastal Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 5-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 6.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L W | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at LA Krewe Rush | 12–1 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at LA Elite SP | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.68 | +3.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.66 | -0.82 |
Common opponents: Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 1–0; they 12–1. Gulf Coast United FC — we 0–3; they 4–1. LA Krewe Rush — we 2–0; they 5–2. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 1–3; they 5–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Coastal Rush score 6.8/game — well above the league's 2.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Coastal Rush concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Gulf Coast United FC, 0–5 at LA Elite SP.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 5%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Coastal Rush have won 5 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
Hattiesburg Futbol Club sit 6th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.20.A point moves us above Hattiesburg Futbol Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Coastal Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC Huntsville – Coastal Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 68%
- 5th 6%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 25%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Elite SP | 3.00 (+1.80) | 1st (2.88) | 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Coastal Rush | 3.00 (+1.80) | 2nd (2.67) | 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 2.14 (+0.94) | 3rd (2.22) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Gulf Coast United FC | 1.29 (+0.09) | 7th (1.13) | A point next game |
| 5 | LA Krewe Rush | 1.25 (+0.05) | 5th (1.25) | A point next game |
| 6 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 1.25 (+0.05) | 6th (1.25) | A point next game |
How the results connect
24 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Alabama FC Huntsville to Coastal Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.56 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Coastal Rush 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +29 |
Home Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.24 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Union 10 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -23 |
Home Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 1.19 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Louisiana Fire SC 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -23 |
Home Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.37 | 1.34 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LA Elite SP | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | +48 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +1.48 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Gulf Coast United FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Coastal Rush | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 5 | +29 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.82 | +0.49 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Mar 7 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWL | +0.47 | -2.80 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Gulf Coast United FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLLL | -0.62 | +4.93 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 at LA Elite SP See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | LA Krewe Rush | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 10 | 1.25 | LLWLD | +0.16 | — | 31% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 33 | -19 | 10 | 1.25 | LWLWD | +0.26 | — | 0% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | +0.66 | -0.56 | 68% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Union 10 · Sun Nov 8 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Union 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 29 | -23 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.65 | -0.68 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Louisiana Fire SC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.25 | +1.03 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Mar 7 at Coastal Rush · Sun Mar 14 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.