Hattiesburg Futbol Club

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Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G, Field 9 ↗ far trip

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.3 against · 1.18 expected points)

Common opponents: Alabama FC Huntsville — we 0–3; they 0–4. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 0–2; they 1–3. Louisiana Fire SC — we 2–1; they 0–3. Coastal Rush ENCL RL — we 0–6, 0–5; they 0–3, 0–4. Union 10 — we 1–4; they 1–0, 0–2. LA Krewe Rush — we 0–3; they 1–2.

• They struggle to score
  Gulf Coast United FC average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 5 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Gulf Coast United FC concede 2.6/game; worst result 0–4 vs Alabama FC Huntsville.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–3 vs Alabama FC Huntsville, 0–2 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers, 0–6 vs Coastal Rush ENCL RL, 0–3 at LA Krewe Rush, 0–5 at Coastal Rush ENCL RL.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 30%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Gulf Coast United FC have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 11:00 AM at Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Gulf Coast United FC sit 8th on 0.38 PPG; we are on 0.38.

  A point moves us above Gulf Coast United FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Gulf Coast United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Hattiesburg Futbol Club – Gulf Coast United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 22 – Sun Feb 28); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th 2%
8. 8th 35%
9. 9th 62%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.69 PPG if we win out).