Alabama FC Huntsville

ECNL Regional League Girls · Gulf Coast GU13 · 9 teams · Alabama FC (all teams)

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3rd

4-2-1 record · 7 played

2.00 points per game

+9 goal diff · 15–6

WLDWWlast 5

92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Alabama FC Huntsville
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Coastal Rush ENCL RL
2nd · 2.22 PPG

Merrimack Sports Complex, Field 18 ↗

31% 24% 45%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.7 against · 1.17 expected points)

Season so far	Alabama FC Huntsville	Coastal Rush ENCL RL
Position	3rd	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	4-2-1	6-2-1
Points per game	2.00	2.22
Goals for / game	2.1	3.2
Goals against / game	0.9	0.8
Clean sheets	3	6
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W D L W	D W D W W
Biggest win	4–0 at Gulf Coast United FC	6–0 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club
Worst loss	1–2 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers	2–3 vs Louisiana Fire SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.85	+1.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.13	-0.52

Common opponents: LA Krewe Rush — we 2–2, 2–1; they 2–0, 3–3. Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 3–0; they 6–0, 5–0. Gulf Coast United FC — we 4–0; they 3–0, 4–0. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 1–2, 2–0; they 1–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Coastal Rush ENCL RL score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.6.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Coastal Rush ENCL RL concede only 0.8/game with 6 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 31%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Coastal Rush ENCL RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC Huntsville – Coastal Rush ENCL RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.88 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Win 2.13 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 1.88 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.75 PPG	4th▼ down 1	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

17% finish 1st

92% top 4

8% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 17%
2nd 28%
3rd 35%
4th 12%
5th 8%
6th <1%
7th <1%
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers	2.38 (+0.38)	2nd (2.11)	25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
2	Coastal Rush ENCL RL	2.22 (+0.22)	1st (2.17)	22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

59 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Alabama FC Huntsville to Coastal Rush ENCL RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us

9 even

33 favour them

-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

18 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 5th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 10 04:00 PM no score posted	Gulf Coast United FC 8th · 1-0-7 · GD -18	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	2–0	2.65	2.08	Bank it
Sun Oct 11 02:00 PM no score posted	Hattiesburg Futbol Club 9th · 1-0-7 · GD -22	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	3–0	2.75	2.16	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Coastal Rush ENCL RL 2nd · 6-2-1 · GD +22	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.17	2.06	Upside
Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM	Union 10 6th · 4-1-7 · GD -4	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.23	2.07	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	LA Elite SP 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–0	2.22	2.09	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM	Louisiana Fire SC 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +2	Home Merrimack Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	1–1	1.97	2.08	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	Union 10 6th · 4-1-7 · GD -4	Away far trip Trione Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	2.00	2.07	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM	Coastal Rush ENCL RL 2nd · 6-2-1 · GD +22	Away far trip Ashton Brosnaham	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–1	0.93	1.99	Upside
Sat May 15 11:00 AM	Louisiana Fire SC 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.73	1.98	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers

2.38

WWDLW

+0.08

-0.19

96%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Union 10 (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Union 10 (6th)	4–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Coastal Rush ENCL RL · Sat Mar 13 vs LA Elite SP · Sun Mar 14 vs Louisiana Fire SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	LA Elite SP (7th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat May 1	at	LA Elite SP (7th)	1–0	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Rush ENCL RL

+22

2.22

WWDWD

-0.52

+0.20

99%

1.7

D	Sun Oct 18	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Union 10 (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 10 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 11 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	LA Elite SP (7th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Union 10 (6th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	LA Elite SP (7th)	2–0	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC Huntsville

2.00

WLDWW

-0.13

-0.07

92%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	LA Elite SP (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	3–0
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Oct 11 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush ENCL RL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	2–0	85%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union 10 (6th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	LA Elite SP (7th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Union 10 (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	1–1	24%
·	Sat May 15	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Louisiana Fire SC

1.86

WWLLW

-0.15

+0.07

41%

4.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Union 10 (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	3–2
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Union 10 (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Coastal Rush ENCL RL · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Elite SP · Sun Nov 8 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	LA Elite SP (7th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	1–1	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	LA Elite SP (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LA Krewe Rush

1.55

WLLWD

+0.20

-0.66

70%

4.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Union 10 (6th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Union 10 (6th)	4–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sat Mar 6 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Mar 7 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 20 at LA Elite SP See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	LA Elite SP (7th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	LA Elite SP (7th)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union 10

-4

1.08

LWWLW

-0.14

+0.39

6.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	LA Elite SP (7th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	LA Elite SP (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–3
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 at Coastal Rush ENCL RL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LA Elite SP

-2

1.00

WDLL

-0.35

+0.17

6.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Union 10 (6th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Union 10 (6th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush ENCL RL · Sun Oct 25 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Nov 7 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	0–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gulf Coast United FC

-18

0.38

LWLLL

+0.56

-0.27

8.3

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Union 10 (6th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union 10 (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Feb 27 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Krewe Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	LA Elite SP (7th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	LA Elite SP (7th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Hattiesburg Futbol Club (9th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	0–2	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Hattiesburg Futbol Club

-22

0.38

LLLLL

+0.58

-0.16

8.6

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	LA Elite SP (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Union 10 (6th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Coastal Rush ENCL RL (2nd)	0–6
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Union 10 · Sun Oct 11 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Feb 27 at Gulf Coast United FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Union 10 (6th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Alabama FC Huntsville (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	LA Elite SP (7th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	LA Krewe Rush (5th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Gulf Coast United FC (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers (1st)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.