Gulf Coast United FC

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Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G, Field 9 ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.1 against · 1.54 expected points)

Common opponents: Coastal Rush ENCL RL — we 0–3, 0–4; they 0–6, 0–5. Alabama FC Huntsville — we 0–4; they 0–3. Louisiana Fire SC — we 0–3; they 2–1. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 1–3; they 0–2. Union 10 — we 1–0, 0–2; they 1–4. LA Krewe Rush — we 1–2; they 0–3.

• They struggle to score
  Hattiesburg Futbol Club average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 5 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Hattiesburg Futbol Club concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–6 vs Coastal Rush ENCL RL.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–3 at Coastal Rush ENCL RL, 0–4 vs Alabama FC Huntsville, 0–3 vs Louisiana Fire SC, 0–4 vs Coastal Rush ENCL RL, 0–2 at Union 10.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 42% / draw 27% / loss 30%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  Hattiesburg Futbol Club have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

Where we'd sit after the Hattiesburg Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gulf Coast United FC – Hattiesburg Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 22 – Sun Feb 28); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th <1%
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th 6%
8. 8th 57%
9. 9th 37%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.69 PPG if we win out).